ATP Challenger Tour · 2nd Round Qualifying · Mexico City
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
🎯 Baseliner
Mochizuki
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 58% vs 🧱 The Wall across 1,137 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Keegan Smith here.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the wall's elite returner. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–9 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.98 | 2.73 |
| ROI % | -14.3% | -6.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.43u | -0.24u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
1
Smith
2
Mochizuki
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mochizuki has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Smith's 33%).
| Opponent | Smith | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Sho Shimabukuro | W 57 60 63 | L 67 46 |
| Hugo Gaston | L 63 36 26 | W 64 63 64 |
| Colton Smith | L 67 16 | W 62 62 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Smith | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 71.9% | 54.4% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.9% | 65.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.4% | 45.8% |
| Aces / Match | 6.4 | 2.2 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.1 | 5.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 63.5% | 39.9% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.8% | 34.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 47.1% | 51.4% |
| BP Converted % | 35.5% | 45.1% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.6 | 18 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 24.1 | 35 |
| Net Pts Won % | 59% | 70% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.7% | 48.2% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Sho Shimabukuro
Lexus Birmingham Open · Round of 32
Jun 3
Remy Bertola
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 18
Jacob Fearnley
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 1st Round Qualifying
May 4
Mariano Navone
Republica Dominicana Open - Copa Cap Cana · Round of 16
Mar 12
Keegan Smith
Morelia Open · Round of 32
Mar 12
Matchup overview
Keegan Smith and Shintaro Mochizuki face off in the 2nd Round Qualifying at Mexico City on Clay.
Keegan Smith leads 1-2 over 3 previous meetings.
Keegan Smith is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Ben Jones (Jun 1).
Shintaro Mochizuki is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Sho Shimabukuro (Jun 3).
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