Keegan SmithvsAlex Bolt

April 27, 2026H Hard

Model Prediction

Archetype Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Smith

🎯 Baseliner

Precise groundstrokesCourt controlPatient constructionConsistent depth

Bolt

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve

Matchup analysis

🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 2,889 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Keegan Smith plays Alex Bolt.

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Smith	Bolt
W-L	10–9	12–8
Avg odds	1.89	2.25
ROI %	-9.5%	+3.5%
Units P/L	-1.81u	+0.70u

Head-to-Head

Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting

Smith

Bolt

Feb 28, 2023

Waco

H Hard · Round of 32

Bolt

Common Opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Bolt has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Smith's 0%).

Opponent	Smith	Bolt
Li Tu	L 63 57 67	W 62 63
Zachary Svajda	L 67 46	L 76 67 57

Mechanics

Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days

Stat	Smith	Bolt
Serve
1st Serve In %	69.7%	62.4%
1st Serve Pts Won %	70%	74.4%
2nd Serve Pts Won %	52.1%	52.8%
Aces / Match	5.7	8.5
Double Faults / Match	2.5	1.8
Break Points Saved %	52.3%	68%
Return
1st Return Pts Won %	26.5%	28.8%
2nd Return Pts Won %	46.6%	46.4%
BP Converted %	35.6%	32.2%
Rally
Winners / Match	24.1	29
Unforced Errors / Match	27.6	32.3
Net Pts Won %	61.6%	69.1%
Total Pts Won %	49.1%	50.7%
Surface (Hard)
Hard Win %	53%	56%