WTA Finals · Round of 16 · Bad Homburg
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Siniakova
🏹 Frontrunner
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 753 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jessica Pegula here.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts. On Grass, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Siniakova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–3 | 3–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.90 | 1.27 |
| ROI % | +19.6% | -24.5% |
| Units P/L | +1.96u | -1.47u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
1
Siniakova
5
Pegula
Oct 6, 2025
Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 22, 2025
Bad Homburg
G Grass · Round of 16
Jun 17, 2024
Berlin
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Feb 21, 2022
Doha
H Hard · Round of 64
Jun 21, 2021
Bad Homburg
G Grass · Round of 16
Jul 29, 2019
Washington
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Siniakova's 50%).
| Opponent | Siniakova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 64 67 57 | W 62 26 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 36 46 | W 76 62 |
| Anna Blinkova | W 62 62 | W 61 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 62 57 | W 36 63 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 75 63 | W 64 57 63 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 57 64 76 | W 62 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 67 | L 62 36 46 |
| Clara Tauson | W 64 61 | W 63 26 64 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 16 46 | W 16 64 63 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 60 61 | W 57 62 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Siniakova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.5% | 63.9% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 64.7% | 69.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 51.5% | 50.3% |
| Aces / Match | 1 | 2.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| Break Points Saved % | 71.9% | 65.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 43.4% | 40.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 55.3% | 53.4% |
| BP Converted % | 49.5% | 39.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.7% | 53.5% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 0% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Katerina Siniakova and Jessica Pegula face off in the Round of 16 at Bad Homburg on Grass.
Katerina Siniakova leads 1-5 over 6 previous meetings.
Katerina Siniakova is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Lingling Zhu (Jun 15).
Jessica Pegula is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Kimberly Birrell (May 26).
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