Other · Finals · Nitto ATP Finals
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sinner
💥 Big Hitter
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 616 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Jannik Sinner here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sinner | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 29–1 | 10–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| ROI % | +9.8% | -18.9% |
| Units P/L | +2.95u | -2.46u |
Prior meetings and scores · 17 career meetings
7
Sinner
10
Alcaraz
Apr 11, 2026
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
C Clay · Final
Nov 16, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Finals
Sep 7, 2025
US Open
H Hard · Finals
Jul 13, 2025
Wimbledon
G Grass · Finals
Jun 8, 2025
Roland Garros
C Clay · Finals
May 18, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Finals
Oct 2, 2024
Beijing
H Hard · Finals
Jun 6, 2024
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 16, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 3, 2023
Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sinner has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Alcaraz's 90%).
| Opponent | Sinner | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | W 64 64 | W 61 76 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 62 57 64 | L 36 67 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 62 64 | W 76 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 61 62 | W 64 76 67 67 75 |
| Arthur Fils | W 62 64 | W 62 61 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 62 75 | W 63 64 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 64 | W 62 64 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 64 | W 63 60 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 64 64 | W 64 62 64 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 61 64 | W 62 64 61 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Sinner | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 63.2% | 66% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70% | 73.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 53.9% | 56.9% |
| Aces / Match | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2 | 2 |
| Break Points Saved % | 49.2% | 54.5% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 25.7% | 37.1% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 48% | 58.4% |
| BP Converted % | 32% | 53.8% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 17.6 | 24.5 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 20.8 | 25.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 61.2% | 69.9% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.2% | 56% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 100% | 71% |
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Clement Tabur
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Casper Ruud
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Final
May 17
Daniil Medvedev
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Semifinals
May 16
Andrey Rublev
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Quarterfinals
May 14
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Matchup overview
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz face off in the Finals at Nitto ATP Finals on Hard.
Jannik Sinner leads 7-10 over 17 previous meetings.
Jannik Sinner is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (May 27).
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
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