ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 32 · Lexington
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
🤖 Servebot
Paul
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 3,362 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Frances Tiafoe here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–6 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.48 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | +6.1% | -2.2% |
| Units P/L | +1.04u | -0.39u |
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
2
Tiafoe
4
Paul
Apr 4, 2026
Fayez Sarofim & Co. U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 17, 2024
Delray Beach
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 10, 2022
Adelaide 2
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 12, 2021
Stockholm
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 13, 2020
Delray Beach
H Hard · Round of 16
Jul 13, 2016
Lexington
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Tiafoe's 70%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata | W 64 36 62 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 46 57 | W 26 63 63 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 67 63 62 | L 67 64 36 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | W 62 62 | W 64 62 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 62 | W 46 64 76 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 36 76 | W 64 63 63 |
| Nuno Borges | W 64 64 | W 76 63 57 57 75 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 57 16 | L 46 36 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 63 57 | W 46 64 63 |
| Elmer Moller | W 63 64 62 | W 63 63 61 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.4% | 64.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 70.6% | 67.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 55.6% | 50% |
| Aces / Match | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60.5% | 40.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 28.5% | 32.9% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| BP Converted % | 38.1% | 44% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 21.6 | 23.7 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 25.5 | 32.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 74.8% | 75.1% |
| Total Pts Won % | 51.1% | 49.6% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 67% | 75% |
Last five matches per player
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Jaime Faria
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Hubert Hurkacz
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Eliot Spizzirri
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Diego Dedura
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 17
Matchup overview
Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul face off in the Round of 32 at Lexington on Hard.
Frances Tiafoe leads 2-4 over 6 previous meetings.
Frances Tiafoe is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Matteo Arnaldi (May 31).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Casper Ruud (May 29).
Share this match
