ATP Masters 1000 · Finals · ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Medvedev
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 54% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 616 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Daniil Medvedev here.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–3 | 11–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.14 | 2.38 |
| ROI % | -18.9% | +26.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.46u | +4.49u |
Prior meetings and scores · 9 career meetings
6
Alcaraz
3
Medvedev
Mar 14, 2026
BNP Paribas Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 1, 2024
Beijing
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 12, 2024
Wimbledon
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 17, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Finals
Nov 17, 2023
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 8, 2023
US Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Jul 14, 2023
Wimbledon
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 19, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Finals
Jul 11, 2021
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 64
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Medvedev's 40%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Walton | W 63 76 62 | L 26 61 16 61 46 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | L 26 75 46 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 63 60 | L 36 67 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 63 | W 64 60 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 67 63 62 | L 64 26 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 62 64 | W 64 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 64 76 67 67 75 | L 62 36 67 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | W 64 64 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 62 64 61 | L 67 46 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Alcaraz | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 66% | 65.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.6% | 69.4% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 56.9% | 52.5% |
| Aces / Match | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2 | 2.6 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54.5% | 52.3% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 37.1% | 33.4% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 58.4% | 54.2% |
| BP Converted % | 53.8% | 37.6% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24.5 | 21.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 25.6 | 27.1 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69.9% | 70.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 56% | 51.9% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 71% | 75% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 11
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 8
Adam Walton
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Jannik Sinner
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Semifinals
May 16
Martin Landaluce
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Quarterfinals
May 14
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 16
May 12
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 11
Matchup overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev face off in the Finals at ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells on Hard.
Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-3 over 9 previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
Daniil Medvedev is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Adam Walton (May 26).
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