ATP 250 · Quarterfinals · Los Cabos
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
⚙️ Grinder
Paul
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
Both Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul are ⚙️ Grinder types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 2,472 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 11–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.61 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -19.2% | -3.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.69u | -0.48u |
Prior meetings and scores · 7 career meetings
5
Minaur
2
Paul
May 19, 2026
Bitpanda Hamburg Open
C Clay · Semifinals
May 13, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 16
Aug 3, 2023
Los Cabos
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 4, 2023
Acapulco
H Hard · Finals
Jun 23, 2022
Eastbourne
G Grass · Quarterfinals
May 11, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 32
Mar 15, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Paul's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 67 63 64 20 | W 62 75 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 61 61 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | L 61 57 46 57 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | W 75 46 76 |
| Sebastian Korda | W 46 64 64 | L 46 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | W 64 63 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 64 63 | W 46 63 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 67 46 57 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | L 67 76 36 76 16 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 60.9% | 63.5% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 66.1% | 67.1% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49.2% | 49.1% |
| Aces / Match | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 56.9% | 40.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 27.8% | 32.3% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 47.5% | 46.4% |
| BP Converted % | 32.2% | 41.4% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 18.9 | 22.9 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 36.5 | 32.4 |
| Net Pts Won % | 69.4% | 73.3% |
| Total Pts Won % | 48% | 48.9% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 33% | 80% |
Last five matches per player
Tommy Paul
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Semifinals
May 19
Luciano Darderi
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Francisco Cerundolo
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 32
May 9
Matteo Arnaldi
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 64
May 8
Ignacio Buse
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Final
May 21
Alex de Minaur
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Semifinals
May 19
Daniel Altmaier
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Quarterfinals
May 16
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · Round of 16
May 13
Luciano Darderi
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 32
May 10
Matchup overview
Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul face off in the Quarterfinals at Los Cabos on Hard.
Alex de Minaur leads 5-2 over 7 previous meetings.
Alex de Minaur is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Tommy Paul (May 19).
Tommy Paul is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Ignacio Buse (May 21).
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