Tatjana Maria vs Varvara GrachevaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4Title3 meetings · sets 5–3
🇫🇷Varvara Gracheva
#172 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
30wTatjana Maria and Varvara Gracheva have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Merida Open Akron - Merida in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Maria leads 2–1. Maria has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Maria has taken 5 sets to Gracheva's 3. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Maria | Gracheva | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Tatjana Maria | Varvara Gracheva | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 94% | 30/32 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 8/28 | 22% | 2/9 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 17% | 10/60 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 82% | 23/28 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 14/31 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 7/12 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 31/36 | 89% | 8/9 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 30/36 | 44% | 4/9 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Maria 1, Gracheva 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Gracheva
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Tatjana Maria and Varvara Gracheva are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Feb 18, 2024
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 22, 2023
Tennis in the Land - Cleveland
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 21, 2023
Merida Open Akron - Merida
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Maria | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.04 | - |
| ROI % | -6.7% | - |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Maria | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | UKR → TUR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Gracheva's 0%).
| Opponent | Maria | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 76 57 06 | L 57 26 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 63 63 | L 67 06 |
| Magda Linette | W 60 63 | L 62 26 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Magda Linette
Miami Open - Miami · 1st Round
Mar 17
Lilli Tagger
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 5
Jessica Pegula
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai · 2nd Round
Feb 17
Rebecca Sramkova
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai · 1st Round
Feb 16
Magdalena Frech
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Feb 14
Priscilla Hon
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 13
Maria Sakkari
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha · 3rd Round
Feb 11
Linda Noskova
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha · 2nd Round
Feb 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 19–60 matches
| Metric | Maria | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 53% |
| Sets won | 55% | 48% |
| Games won | 53% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Maria | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Maria | Gracheva |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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