Pavel Kotov vs Yosuke WatanukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pavel Kotov and Yosuke Watanuki have met 3 times since 2023; Yosuke Watanuki leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Madrid in 2023 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Kotov has taken 4 sets to Watanuki's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pavel Kotov won at Dubai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kotov | Watanuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pavel Kotov | Yosuke Watanuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 18/32 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 5/12 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 19/44 | 36% | 9/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 13/29 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 77% | 10/13 | 29% | 2/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 76% | 19/25 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 63% | 10/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kotov 1, Watanuki 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kotov
🤖 Servebot
Watanuki
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Feb 22, 2025
Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 3, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 25, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kotov | Watanuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pavel Kotov | Yosuke Watanuki | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 69% | 11/16 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kotov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | +24.1% | -39.4% |
| Units P/L | +3.86u | -2.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kotov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 11 | — |
| Distance | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kotov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Watanuki's 25%).
| Opponent | Kotov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Marat Sharipov | L 06 36 | L 76 57 26 |
| Elias Ymer | W 36 63 76 | W 36 61 64 |
| August Holmgren | W 64 76 | L 76 46 57 |
| Cezar Cretu | L 61 16 26 | L 16 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Tallon Griekspoor
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Aleksandar Vukic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Martin Damm
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Shintaro Mochizuki
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Luca Castelnuovo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Bernard Tomic
Guangzhou Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Semen Pankin
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Chun-Hsin Tseng
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Semen Pankin
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 31
Hayato Matsuoka
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Toby Samuel
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Andre Ilagan
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
August Holmgren
Granby Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–44 matches
| Metric | Kotov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 73% | 56% |
| Sets won | 64% | 56% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kotov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kotov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.