Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Pavel LagutinPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- San Gregorio di Catania Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 3rd Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 12 · 5:30 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 1.36 or shorter, Pavel Lagutin has won 16 of 17 (94%). The price implied 75%, so Pavel Lagutin has beaten it by 19 points.
At 3.00 or longer, Oleksandr Ovcharenko has won 5 of 10 (50%). The price implied 28%, so Oleksandr Ovcharenko has beaten it by 22 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Pavel Lagutin meets Oleksandr Ovcharenko in the 3rd Round Qualifying of the San Gregorio di Catania Challenger on October 12. Lagutin, ranked 410, faces the 616-ranked Ovcharenko on clay. Both players enter off single-match layoffs of one day.
The two have never met. Lagutin has won 7 of his last 10 matches while Ovcharenko holds the same record over that span, though Ovcharenko has played four times in the past two weeks compared to Lagutin's single outing. Both players defeated Franco Ribero, Kangyuan Shi, and Lorenzo Angelini in recent matches, suggesting overlapping tournament schedules.
Lagutin carries a clay record of 17-3 at 85%, built on aggressive baseline play and sustained pressure. Ovcharenko shows 13-7 on the surface at 65%, operating as a reactive player who reads opponents and strikes from mid-court. The match will turn on whether Lagutin's relentless rhythm and depth can wear down a player structured to absorb pace and redirect it.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ovcharenko | Lagutin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | Pavel Lagutin | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 81% | 29/36 | 86% | 38/44 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 11/23 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 18/59 | 22% | 14/64 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 23/39 | 76% | 29/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 64% | 7/11 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 9/15 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 32/37 | 91% | 41/45 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 29/37 | 84% | 38/45 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ovcharenko
🪃 Counterpuncher
Lagutin
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Oleksandr Ovcharenko.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Ovcharenko and Lagutin have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ovcharenko | Lagutin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Oleksandr Ovcharenko | Pavel Lagutin | ||
| 1 or more | 96% | 24/25 | 57% | 16/28 |
| 3 or more | 48% | 12/25 | 0% | 0/28 |
| 5 or more | 4% | 1/25 | 0% | 0/28 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/25 | 0% | 0/28 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/25 | 0% | 0/28 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/25 | 0% | 0/28 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ovcharenko | Lagutin |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–7 | 22–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.53 |
| ROI % | +5.0% | +20.0% |
| Units P/L | +1.16u | +5.20u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ovcharenko | Lagutin |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 862 mi · 1,388 km |
| Route | ITA | ITA → BUL |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Ovcharenko and Lagutin posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Ovcharenko | Lagutin |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Seres | W 62 63 | W 63 60 |
| Lorenzo Angelini | W 64 64 | W |
| Franco Ribero | W 64 62 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Dimitris Sakellaridis
San Gregorio di Catania Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Christian Langmo
Palermo Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Lorenzo Angelini
Palermo Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Pierluigi Basile
Bari Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Filip Misolic
Bari Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Georgii Kravchenko
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Pol Martin Tiffon
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Robert Strombachs
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Ignacio Parisca
San Gregorio di Catania Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Iliyan Radulov
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Svyatoslav Gulin
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Rares Teodor Pieleanu
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Alejandro Moro Canas
Biella Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Enrico Dalla Valle
Biella Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Maximilian Marterer
Biella Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Matthieu Rohrich
Biella Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–64 matches
| Metric | Ovcharenko | Lagutin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 69% |
| Sets won | 61% | 68% |
| Games won | 53% | 58% |