Nikita Mashtakov vs Noah LopezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- M15 Sibenik
- Level
- ITF M15
- Round
- Final
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 4 · 5:05 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 1.25 or shorter, Nikita Mashtakov has won 13 of 13 (100%). The price implied 82%, so Nikita Mashtakov has beaten it by 18 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Noah Lopez meets Nikita Mashtakov in the final of the M15 Sibenik on October 4, 2026, on clay. Lopez, ranked 1318, has won five straight matches across five contests in two weeks. Mashtakov, ranked 505, sits on a four-match winning streak after playing seven times in fourteen days.
The two have never faced. Lopez lost to Mario Gonzalez Fernandez while Mashtakov defeated him; both players beat Lleyton Richards in recent clay action. On clay over a sample period, Mashtakov has posted a 16-4 record at 80%, while Lopez stands at 13-7 and 65%. Their ten-match records track similarly, both at 70%.
Lopez plays an aggressive baseline style and has sustained momentum through a punishing schedule. Mashtakov operates as a counterpuncher, reading the court and redirecting pace, and his clay record reflects consistency against varied opposition. The final tests whether Lopez's aggression and hot form can overwhelm Mashtakov's tactical composure, or whether Mashtakov's defensive instincts and superior ranking prove decisive under pressure.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mashtakov | Lopez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Nikita Mashtakov | Noah Lopez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 24/35 | 64% | 16/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 13% | 2/15 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 13/50 | 41% | 16/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 71% | 17/24 | 55% | 6/11 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 15/26 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 14/20 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 97% | 30/31 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mashtakov
🪃 Counterpuncher
Lopez
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 2,586 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Mashtakov and Lopez have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mashtakov | Lopez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Nikita Mashtakov | Noah Lopez | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 16/24 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 3/24 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 5 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mashtakov | Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 20–6 | 4–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 1.79 |
| ROI % | +16.4% | +53.6% |
| Units P/L | +4.25u | +2.68u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mashtakov | Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 910 mi · 1,465 km | — |
| Route | POL → BUL | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Mashtakov and Lopez posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Mashtakov | Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Thilo Behrmann | W 26 63 64 | W 60 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Charles Bertimon
M15 Sibenik · Semifinals
Oct 3
Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg
M15 Sibenik · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Matthias Ujvary
M15 Sibenik · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jonas Gundacker
M15 Sibenik · 1st Round
Sep 29
Maxim Mrva
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Alexander Weis
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Filip Pieczonka
Szczecin Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Martin Van Der Meerschen
M15 Sibenik · Semifinals
Oct 3
Filip Krolo
M15 Sibenik · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Daniele Rapagnetta
M15 Sibenik · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Bozo Barun
M15 Sibenik · 1st Round
Sep 29
Mikhail Tsapenko
M15 Sibenik · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jaron Held
M15 Allershausen · 1st Round
Aug 25
Nicolas Parizzia
M15 Litija · 1st Round
May 20
Adrien Burdet
M15 Litija · 3rd Round Qualifying
May 19
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–50 matches
| Metric | Mashtakov | Lopez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 64% |
| Sets won | 64% | 61% |
| Games won | 54% | 55% |