Matilde Paoletti vs Mia RisticPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Matilde Paoletti
#879 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
1 meeting · sets 1–2
🇷🇸Mia Ristic
#195 · 20 yrs
5TitleMatilde Paoletti and Mia Ristic have met 1 time since 2026; Mia Ristic leads 1–0. Across all meetings Paoletti has taken 1 sets to Ristic's 2. Their most recent meeting: Mia Ristic won at W75 Kursumlijska Banja (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paoletti | Ristic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matilde Paoletti | Mia Ristic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 3/6 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 67% | 4/6 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 58% | 7/12 | 34% | 19/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 3/8 | 56% | 20/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 100% | 2/2 | 73% | 11/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 20% | 1/5 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 60% | 6/10 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 30% | 3/10 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paoletti 0, Ristic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paoletti
🪃 Counterpuncher
Ristic
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,501 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mia Ristic.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 15, 2026
W75 Kursumlijska Banja
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paoletti | Ristic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matilde Paoletti | Mia Ristic | ||
| 1 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 68% | 15/22 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 18% | 4/22 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 5% | 1/22 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/22 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paoletti | Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–3 | 17–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.61 | 1.60 |
| ROI % | -18.9% | +5.0% |
| Units P/L | -1.32u | +1.15u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paoletti | Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 5 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → FRA → POR | FRA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ristic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Paoletti's 25%).
| Opponent | Paoletti | Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriela Ce | L 16 57 | W 62 63 |
| Despina Papamichail | W 63 57 60 | L 46 26 |
| Mariia Masiianskaia | L 67 57 | W 60 60 |
| Lucija Ciric Bagaric | L 63 57 67 | W 61 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Gabriela Ce
W35 Trieste · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Sophie Triquart
W35 Trieste · 1st Round
Aug 25
Mia Ristic
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · Semifinals
Aug 15
Rada Zolotareva
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Elena Milutinovic
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Despina Papamichail
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round
Aug 12
Mariia Masiianskaia
W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round
Aug 5
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
W35 Tarvisio · 1st Round
Jun 24
Rositsa Dencheva
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · Final
Aug 16
Matilde Paoletti
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · Semifinals
Aug 15
Lisa Zaar
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Zhibek Kulambayeva
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Havah Kaur Kaler
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round
Aug 11
Laura Samson
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Yelyzaveta Kotliar
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Darja Semenistaja
Axeria Open - Targu Mures · 1st Round
Jul 28
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–56 matches
| Metric | Paoletti | Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 61% |
| Sets won | 52% | 60% |
| Games won | 55% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paoletti | Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| ITF W75 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paoletti | Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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