Maria Toma vs Xinyu GaoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Maria Toma and Xinyu Gao have met 1 time since 2026; Xinyu Gao leads 1–0. Across all meetings Toma has taken 0 sets to Gao's 2. Their most recent meeting: Xinyu Gao won at W75 Ourense (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Toma | Gao | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Maria Toma | Xinyu Gao | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 91% | 21/23 | 77% | 24/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 10/25 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 12/48 | 30% | 16/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 8/12 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 85% | 11/13 | 70% | 7/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 84% | 31/37 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 65% | 24/37 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Toma 0, Gao 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Toma
🛡️ The Spoiler
Gao
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 66% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 2,056 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Xinyu Gao.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 5, 2026
W75 Ourense
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Toma | Gao | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Maria Toma | Xinyu Gao | ||
| 1 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 3 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Toma | Gao |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–8 | 10–7 |
| Avg odds | 4.34 | 2.50 |
| ROI % | -26.8% | -14.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.21u | -2.42u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Toma | Gao |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GER → SRB → MNE | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Gao has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Toma's 50%).
| Opponent | Toma | Gao |
|---|---|---|
| Kristina Voznyak | W 62 76 | W 64 67 76 |
| Julia Stusek | L 26 16 | W 64 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Agnese Gentili
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Benedetta Ortenzi
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Aneta Laboutkova
Tolentino Open - Tolentino · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Matilde Paoletti
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 16
Iveta Dapkute
W50 Evora · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
W50 Leiria · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Amelia Rajecki
W50 Leiria · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Alena Kovackova
W50 Oldenzaal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Panna Udvardy
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Francisca Jorge
Ladies Open - Caldas da Rainha · 1st Round
Sep 15
Sofia Johnson
W50 Evora · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Elena Micic
W50 Evora · 1st Round
Sep 9
Barbora Palicova
W75 Bytom · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Ane Mintegi Del Olmo
W75 Bytom · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Zongyu Li
W75 Bytom · 1st Round
Aug 26
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–54 matches
| Metric | Toma | Gao |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 57% |
| Sets won | 52% | 57% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Toma | Gao |
|---|---|---|
| ITF W75 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Toma | Gao |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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