Maria Lourdes Carle vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Maria Lourdes Carle
#238 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–3
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleMaria Lourdes Carle and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2022; Maria Lourdes Carle leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Copa Colsanitas - Bogota in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Carle leads 2–1. Carle has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Carle has taken 4 sets to Maria's 3. Their most recent meeting: Maria Lourdes Carle won at Olympics - Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Lourdes Carle | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Maria Lourdes Carle | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 12/25 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 13/30 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 26/55 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 20% | 4/20 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 4/9 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 16/20 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 12/20 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Lourdes Carle 1, Maria 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carle
⚔️ The Gladiator
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,929 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tatjana Maria.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 28, 2024
Olympics - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jul 16, 2024
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 4, 2022
Copa Colsanitas - Bogota
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carle | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Maria Lourdes Carle | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 8/16 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–7 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.65 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -41.0% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -5.32u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | ESP → SRB → UKR | UKR → TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Carle's 60%).
| Opponent | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Lucciana Perez Alarcon | L 26 60 36 | W 61 62 |
| Madison Brengle | W 46 64 76 | W 63 64 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | L 26 26 | W 64 63 |
| Rebeka Masarova | W 63 46 63 | L 46 36 |
| Tiphanie Lemaitre | W | W 61 67 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W50 Lexington · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Valeriya Strakhova
W50 Lexington · 1st Round
Oct 7
Nuria Brancaccio
Tolentino Open - Tolentino · 1st Round
Sep 22
Ekaterine Gorgodze
Zavarovalnica Triglav - Ljubljana · 1st Round
Sep 15
Rositsa Dencheva
ATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Eva Vedder
ATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Gina Feistel
ATIK Antalya Open - Antalya · 1st Round
Sep 8
Federica Urgesi
W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–60 matches
| Metric | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 53% |
| Sets won | 46% | 55% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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