Maria Lourdes Carle vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Maria Lourdes Carle
#219 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
5w3 meetings · sets 4–3
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Maria Lourdes Carle and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2022; Maria Lourdes Carle leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Copa Colsanitas - Bogota in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Carle leads 2–1. Carle has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Carle has taken 4 sets to Maria's 3. Their most recent meeting: Maria Lourdes Carle won at Olympics - Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Lourdes Carle | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Maria Lourdes Carle | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 12/20 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/43 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 23% | 3/13 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 79% | 11/14 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 3/7 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 16/22 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 55% | 12/22 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Lourdes Carle 1, Maria 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carle
🧱 The Wall
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 58% vs 🧱 The Wall across 1,059 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tatjana Maria.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 28, 2024
Olympics - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jul 16, 2024
Palermo Ladies Open - Palermo
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 4, 2022
Copa Colsanitas - Bogota
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carle | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Maria Lourdes Carle | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.33 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +29.3% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.64u | +2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Emma Lene
W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas · 1st Round
Jul 28
Anhelina Kalinina
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Jule Niemeier
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 1st Round
Jul 21
Marina Bassols Ribera
Generali Open Ladies - Kitzbuhel · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Barbora Palicova
Generali Open Ladies - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Kathinka Von Deichmann
Generali Open Ladies - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 14
Anna Blinkova
Grand Est Open 88 - Contrexeville · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Laura Pigossi
Grand Est Open 88 - Contrexeville · 1st Round
Jul 7
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–60 matches
| Metric | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 50% |
| Sets won | 48% | 52% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carle | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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