Madalena Matias vs Polona HercogPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon
- Level
- WTA 125
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 13 · 5:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Polona Hercog takes on Madalena Matias in the first round of the Lisboa Belem Open on October 13, playing on clay. Hercog holds a ranking of 224 and has played four matches in the past two weeks. Matias is unranked and has not competed in nearly three weeks.
The two have never met. Hercog won two of her last ten matches overall and has dropped her last two outings. Matias has won just one of her last five and sits on a four-match losing streak.
Hercog is a versatile player who can construct points from the baseline and finish at net. On clay specifically, she has managed a 45% win rate across a recent sample of matches, though her current form has been uneven. Matias played just one clay-court match in her recent record, losing that encounter. The match will test whether Hercog can steady herself after consecutive losses, while Matias needs to rediscover consistency after extended time away from competition.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Matias | Hercog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madalena Matias | Polona Hercog | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 100% | 4/4 | 68% | 23/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 8% | 1/12 | 36% | 8/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 6% | 1/16 | 34% | 19/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 100% | 1/1 | 49% | 19/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 10% | 1/10 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 56% | 9/16 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 4/5 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 4/5 | 74% | 23/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Matias and Hercog have never faced each other on tour.
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Matias | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–2 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 17.43 | 2.38 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -47.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.00u | -3.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Matias | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 5 |
| Events | 2 | 5 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | EGY → SUI | ESP → SRB → ECU → AUT → SUI |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
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Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 16–56 matches
| Metric | Matias | Hercog |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 25% | 61% |
| Sets won | 27% | 58% |
| Games won | 36% | 54% |