Luka Pavlovic vs Mert AlkayaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luka Pavlovic and Mert Alkaya have met 1 time since 2026; Luka Pavlovic leads 1–0. Across all meetings Pavlovic has taken 2 sets to Alkaya's 0. Their most recent meeting: Luka Pavlovic won at Segovia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pavlovic | Alkaya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luka Pavlovic | Mert Alkaya | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 13/25 | 78% | 47/60 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 7/23 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 19/48 | 31% | 27/88 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 5/18 | 68% | 41/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 64% | 18/28 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 13/20 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 20/24 | 90% | 52/58 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 54% | 13/24 | 81% | 47/58 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pavlovic 1, Alkaya 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pavlovic
🤖 Servebot
Alkaya
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Luka Pavlovic.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 24, 2026
Segovia Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pavlovic | Alkaya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luka Pavlovic | Mert Alkaya | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 72% | 13/18 |
| 5 or more | 69% | 9/13 | 50% | 9/18 |
| 10 or more | 23% | 3/13 | 11% | 2/18 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pavlovic | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.13 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | -3.5% | -31.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.49u | -5.61u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pavlovic | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 2,119 mi · 3,410 km |
| Route | — | TUR → KAZ |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alkaya has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Pavlovic's 67%).
| Opponent | Pavlovic | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Santillan | W 76 63 | W 62 62 |
| Juan Pablo Ficovich | L 16 63 36 | W 63 64 |
| Eliakim Coulibaly | W 62 64 | W 61 16 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Vilius Gaubas
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Matteo Martineau
Segovia Challenger · Final
Jul 26
Keegan Smith
Segovia Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Mert Alkaya
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Yi Zhou
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Takuya Kumasaka
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Yanki Erel
Pozoblanco Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Titouan Droguet
Iasi Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Khumoun Sultanov
Astana Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Beibit Zhukayev
Astana Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 12
Sidharth Rawat
Astana Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 11
Kenta Miyoshi
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Saba Purtseladze
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Colin Sinclair
Samsun Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Luka Pavlovic
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Akira Santillan
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–88 matches
| Metric | Pavlovic | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 68% |
| Sets won | 48% | 66% |
| Games won | 49% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pavlovic | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pavlovic | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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