Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Lucrezia Stefanini
#119 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
33 meetings · sets 2–5
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Lucrezia Stefanini and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Maria has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Stefanini has taken 2 sets to Maria's 5. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Hall of Fame Open - Newport (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Stefanini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lucrezia Stefanini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 15/23 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 17% | 4/23 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 12/46 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 8/18 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 9/24 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 6/15 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 20/21 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 15/21 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Stefanini 0, Maria 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Stefanini
⚔️ The Gladiator
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 3,165 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tatjana Maria.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 10, 2026
Hall of Fame Open - Newport
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Mar 24, 2025
Puerto Vallarta Open - Puerto Vallarta
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 18, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Stefanini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lucrezia Stefanini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–6 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +19.3% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | +3.48u | +2.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Stefanini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Maria's 20%).
| Opponent | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Marie Bouzkova | L 26 46 | L 57 06 |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew | W 63 61 | W 62 61 |
| Katarzyna Kawa | L 46 62 26 | L 36 36 |
| Sloane Stephens | W 64 46 61 | L 61 67 46 |
| Viktorija Golubic | W 60 57 75 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marie Bouzkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Yeon Woo Ku
W100 Evansville · Semifinals
Jul 25
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
W100 Evansville · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Ayana Akli
W100 Evansville · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Elizabeth Mandlik
W100 Evansville · 1st Round
Jul 22
Tatjana Maria
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Anna Sinclair Rogers
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–60 matches
| Metric | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 50% |
| Sets won | 48% | 52% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 125 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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