Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Lucrezia Stefanini
#106 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 2–5
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleLucrezia Stefanini and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Maria has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Stefanini has taken 2 sets to Maria's 5. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Hall of Fame Open - Newport (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Stefanini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lucrezia Stefanini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 27/40 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 21/69 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 16/31 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 19/34 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 6/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 27/36 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Stefanini 0, Maria 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Stefanini
⚔️ The Gladiator
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,929 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tatjana Maria.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 10, 2026
Hall of Fame Open - Newport
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Mar 24, 2025
Puerto Vallarta Open - Puerto Vallarta
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 18, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Stefanini | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lucrezia Stefanini | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 15% | 3/20 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | +28.3% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | +6.23u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 5 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | BRA → GER → ESP | UKR → TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Stefanini's 50%).
| Opponent | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Brengle | W 62 63 | W 63 64 |
| Leolia Jeanjean | L 46 61 16 | W 76 64 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | L 06 16 | W 46 61 62 |
| Jasmine Paolini | L 46 16 | W 64 63 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 63 46 61 | W 61 62 |
| Marie Bouzkova | L 26 46 | L 57 06 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 62 | W 62 61 |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew | W 63 61 | W 62 61 |
| Yexin Ma | W 62 60 | W 61 67 64 |
| Katarzyna Kawa | L 46 62 26 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ayla Aksu
Samsun Open - Samsun · Final
Oct 11
Anna Blinkova
Samsun Open - Samsun · Semifinals
Oct 10
Polina Iatcenko
Samsun Open - Samsun · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Noma Noha Akugue
Samsun Open - Samsun · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Carole Monnet
Samsun Open - Samsun · 1st Round
Oct 6
Leolia Jeanjean
Adana Open - Adana · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Cagla Buyukakcay
Adana Open - Adana · 2nd Round
Sep 30
Elena Ruxandra Bertea
Adana Open - Adana · 1st Round
Sep 28
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–69 matches
| Metric | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 53% |
| Sets won | 55% | 55% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 125 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Stefanini | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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