Lucca Liu vs Mathieu ScagliaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lucca Liu and Mathieu Scaglia have met 1 time since 2026; Lucca Liu leads 1–0. Across all meetings Liu has taken 2 sets to Scaglia's 0. Their most recent meeting: Lucca Liu won at M15 Monastir (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Liu | Scaglia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lucca Liu | Mathieu Scaglia | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 93% | 14/15 | 50% | 12/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 2/10 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 12% | 3/25 | 42% | 18/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 78% | 7/9 | 27% | 4/15 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 2/5 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 15/17 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 52% | 12/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Liu 1, Scaglia 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Liu
⚔️ The Gladiator
Scaglia
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mathieu Scaglia.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 16, 2026
M15 Monastir
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Liu | Scaglia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lucca Liu | Mathieu Scaglia | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 4/10 | 65% | 11/17 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 29% | 5/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Liu | Scaglia |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 10–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.71 | 2.55 |
| ROI % | -19.9% | +3.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.59u | +0.64u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Scaglia has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Liu's 50%).
| Opponent | Liu | Scaglia |
|---|---|---|
| Leander Tauber | W 60 62 | W 67 63 62 |
| Amit Vales | L 46 36 | W 46 62 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tuncay Duran
M15 Monastir · 1st Round
Oct 7
Sebastian Heinrich
M15 Monastir · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Leander Tauber
M15 Monastir · 2nd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Tuncay Duran
M15 Monastir · 1st Round
Sep 29
Paul Colin
M15 Monastir · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Scott Ekindi
M15 Monastir · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Ergi Kirkin
M15 Monastir · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Mathieu Scaglia
M15 Monastir · 1st Round
Sep 16
Finn Murgett
M15 Heraklion · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Henri Haupt
M15 Heraklion · 1st Round
Oct 7
Lucca Liu
M15 Monastir · 1st Round
Sep 16
Robin Bertrand
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pierre Antoine Tailleu
Cassis Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 7
Amit Vales
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Pierre Delage
M15 Cap d'Agde · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Jaume Casas Blasi
M15 Cap d'Agde · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–43 matches
| Metric | Liu | Scaglia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 56% |
| Sets won | 60% | 52% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Liu | Scaglia |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Liu | Scaglia |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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