Luca Castelnuovo vs Yanki ErelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castelnuovo and Yanki Erel have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Castelnuovo leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castelnuovo has taken 2 sets to Erel's 0. Their most recent meeting: Luca Castelnuovo won at M25 Taipei (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castelnuovo | Erel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castelnuovo | Yanki Erel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 81% | 29/36 | 76% | 42/55 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 40% | 6/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 14/58 | 27% | 19/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 18/27 | 55% | 30/55 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 86% | 6/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 10/18 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 33/36 | 90% | 47/52 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 29/36 | 81% | 42/52 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castelnuovo 1, Erel 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castelnuovo
💥 Big Hitter
Erel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 28, 2026
M25 Taipei
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castelnuovo | Erel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castelnuovo | Yanki Erel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 53% | 8/15 |
| 10 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Erel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 3.03 | 1.45 |
| ROI % | -57.9% | +5.1% |
| Units P/L | -4.63u | +0.81u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Erel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | TPE | TUR → TPE |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Erel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Castelnuovo's 60%).
| Opponent | Castelnuovo | Erel |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Yevseyev | W 64 67 61 | W 64 46 61 |
| Oliver Crawford | W 16 63 76 | W 60 62 |
| Zhenxiong Dong | W 64 63 | W 61 61 |
| Semen Pankin | L 57 46 | L 36 63 26 |
| S D Prajwal Dev | L 36 46 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Kuan-Shou Chen
M25 Taipei · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yanki Erel
M25 Taipei · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Hiromasa Koyama
M25 Taipei · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Moerani Bouzige
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 26
Antoine Ghibaudo
Pozoblanco Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Max Basing
Nottingham 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Nottingham 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Gabriel Ghetu
Brasov challenger
Jun 28
Luca Castelnuovo
M25 Taipei · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Hikaru Shiraishi
M25 Taipei · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Kokoro Isomura
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 26
Denis Yevseyev
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Paul Inchauspe
Samsun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Radu Albot
Samsun Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Arda Azkara
Samsun Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Matteo Martineau
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–70 matches
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Erel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 79% |
| Sets won | 60% | 73% |
| Games won | 53% | 60% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castelnuovo | Erel |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castelnuovo | Erel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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