Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel KotovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Chengdu Open - Chengdu
- Level
- ATP 250
- Round
- 1st Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 21 · 2:30 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.41 or longer, Luca Castelnuovo has won 4 of 23 (17%). The price implied 21%, so Luca Castelnuovo has fallen 4 points short of it.
At 1.29 or shorter, Pavel Kotov has won 28 of 36 (78%). That is level with the 78% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Luca Castelnuovo and Pavel Kotov meet next at the Chengdu Open - Chengdu on September 21 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castelnuovo | Kotov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castelnuovo | Pavel Kotov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 27/32 | 63% | 20/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 6/23 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 20% | 11/55 | 41% | 18/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 68% | 17/25 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 12/23 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 82% | 18/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 29/31 | 89% | 25/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 87% | 27/31 | 71% | 20/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castelnuovo
💥 Big Hitter
Kotov
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,632 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Castelnuovo and Kotov have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castelnuovo | Kotov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castelnuovo | Pavel Kotov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 60% | 6/10 |
| 10 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 7–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 1.76 |
| ROI % | +36.2% | +15.7% |
| Units P/L | +5.43u | +1.57u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 12 | 9 |
| Distance | — | 753 mi · 1,212 km |
| Route | TPE → CHN | CHN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kotov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Castelnuovo's 0%).
| Opponent | Castelnuovo | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Elias Ymer | L 67 46 | W 36 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elias Ymer
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Omar Jasika
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Ilya Ivashka
Shanghai Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Ji Sung Nam
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Tung-Lin Wu
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Chun-Hsin Tseng
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Tsung-Hao Huang
Shanghai Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 7
Matthew Dellavedova
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Bernard Tomic
Guangzhou Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Rio Noguchi
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Akira Santillan
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Shintaro Mochizuki
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Alexis Galarneau
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Jake Delaney
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–57 matches
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 73% |
| Sets won | 58% | 66% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |