Luca Castelnuovo vs Matthew DellavedovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇭Luca Castelnuovo
#455 · 29 yrs · L
1 meeting · sets 2–1
🇦🇺Matthew Dellavedova
#299 · 26 yrs · R
4TitleLuca Castelnuovo and Matthew Dellavedova have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Castelnuovo leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castelnuovo has taken 2 sets to Dellavedova's 1. Their most recent meeting: Luca Castelnuovo won at M25 Maanshan (2026).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Zhangjiagang Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- August 30 · 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
Priced around 2.85 or longer, Luca Castelnuovo has won 5 of 28 matches, 18% against a fair-price expectation of 25%.
Priced around 1.37 or shorter, Matthew Dellavedova has won 33 of 39 matches, 85% against a fair-price expectation of 76%.
Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.
Luca Castelnuovo and Matthew Dellavedova meet next at the Zhangjiagang Challenger on August 30 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castelnuovo | Matthew Dellavedova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 81% | 29/36 | 83% | 78/94 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 32% | 12/38 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 14/58 | 21% | 28/132 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 18/27 | 66% | 53/80 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 10/18 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 33/36 | 94% | 84/89 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 29/36 | 88% | 78/89 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castelnuovo 0, Dellavedova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castelnuovo
💥 Big Hitter
Dellavedova
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 532 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Apr 10, 2026
M25 Maanshan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castelnuovo | Matthew Dellavedova | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 92% | 47/51 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 43% | 22/51 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 18% | 9/51 |
| 10 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 4% | 2/51 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/51 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/51 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 44–8 |
| Avg odds | 3.03 | 1.43 |
| ROI % | -57.9% | +13.1% |
| Units P/L | -4.63u | +6.83u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 5 |
| Matches | 4 | 18 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | TPE | AUS → CHN → TPE |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Castelnuovo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Dellavedova's 80%).
| Opponent | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova |
|---|---|---|
| Kristjan Tamm | L 67 00 | W 64 62 |
| Hiromasa Koyama | W 36 76 61 | W 61 62 |
| Moerani Bouzige | W 64 76 | W 63 64 |
| Zhenxiong Dong | W 64 63 | W 67 63 62 |
| Omar Jasika | W 67 76 66 | L 67 36 |
| Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong | W 76 63 | W 63 62 |
| Aoran Wang | W 64 30 | W 64 61 |
| Ye Cong Mo | W 46 63 76 | W 62 75 |
| Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul | W 75 62 | W 76 63 |
| Takuya Kumasaka | W 64 75 | L 63 26 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Kuan-Shou Chen
M25 Taipei · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yanki Erel
M25 Taipei · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Hiromasa Koyama
M25 Taipei · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Moerani Bouzige
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 26
Antoine Ghibaudo
Pozoblanco Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Max Basing
Nottingham 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Nottingham 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Gabriel Ghetu
Brasov challenger
Jun 28
Kasidit Samrej
M25 Taipei · Semifinals
Aug 29
Kristjan Tamm
M25 Taipei · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Tai Sach
M25 Taipei · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Keisuke Saitoh
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 26
Yu Hsiou Hsu
M25 Taipei · Final
Aug 23
Shunsuke Mitsui
M25 Taipei · Semifinals
Aug 22
Tai Sach
M25 Taipei · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Hiromasa Koyama
M25 Taipei · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–132 matches
| Metric | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 71% |
| Sets won | 60% | 68% |
| Games won | 53% | 58% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castelnuovo | Dellavedova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |