Luca Castagnola vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola MordiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Luca Castagnola
#808 · 24 yrs · R
1 meeting · sets 0–2
🇮🇹Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
#1078 · 20 yrs
3Luca Castagnola and Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini have met 1 time since 2026; Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 0 sets to Mordini's 2. Their most recent meeting: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini won at M15 Bologna (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 89% | 17/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 14/35 | 36% | 10/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 24/64 | 26% | 12/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 16/30 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 14/31 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 85% | 17/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 19/28 | 85% | 17/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 0, Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Mordini
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
Both Luca Castagnola and Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini are 🧱 The Wall types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 140 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 3, 2026
M15 Bologna
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Mordini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | ||
| 1 or more | 81% | 13/16 | 74% | 14/19 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 7–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.22 | 2.64 |
| ROI % | -20.8% | +37.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.32u | +4.93u |
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Castagnola and Mordini posted a 33% win rate.
| Opponent | Castagnola | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| Unknown Player | L 36 36 | W 63 61 |
| Jan Kupcic | L 67 64 46 | L 67 75 46 |
| Gabriele Bosio | W 76 62 | L 67 64 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Robert Strombachs
M15 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jan Werblinski
M15 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Sep 30
Fares Zakaria
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Jan Hrazdil
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Sep 23
Valerio Aboian
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
M15 Bologna · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Matic Hribar
M15 Bologna · 1st Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Michael Wright
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Giannicola Misasi
M15 Burgas · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Jannik Maute
M15 Burgas · 1st Round
Oct 6
Lorenzo Carboni
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 21
Alexander Weis
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Gabriele Crivellaro
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 15
Mattias Pisanu
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Vittorio Gillerio
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–64 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 40% |
| Sets won | 47% | 45% |
| Games won | 50% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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