Luca Castagnola vs Stefan PopovicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Stefan Popovic have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Castagnola leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 2 sets to Popovic's 1. Their most recent meeting: Luca Castagnola won at M25 Slovenj Gradec (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Popovic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Stefan Popovic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 15/27 | 77% | 33/43 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 13/35 | 26% | 9/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 25/62 | 24% | 19/78 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 11/25 | 44% | 19/43 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 15/33 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 15/27 | 75% | 33/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 0, Popovic 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Popovic
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 53% vs 🧱 The Wall across 591 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Stefan Popovic.
The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 20, 2026
M25 Slovenj Gradec
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Popovic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Stefan Popovic | ||
| 1 or more | 74% | 17/23 | 71% | 10/14 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 7/23 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Popovic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–10 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | -4.4% | -26.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.97u | -2.89u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Popovic |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → SLO | SRB → SLO |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 6 shared opponents, both Castagnola and Popovic posted a 67% win rate.
| Opponent | Castagnola | Popovic |
|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandez | L 26 46 | W 76 64 |
| Vladyslav Orlov | L 16 26 | L 62 06 46 |
| Nazar Oliynykov | W 36 75 76 | W 26 61 75 |
| Pietro Romeo Scomparin | W 64 63 | L 57 46 |
| Massimo Giunta | W 16 64 76 | W 64 64 |
| Denis Constantin Spiridon | W 26 62 42 | W 75 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefan Popovic
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maximilian Figl
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bruno Fernandez
M15 Trier · 1st Round
Aug 12
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Bolzano · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Luca Parenti
M25 Bolzano · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M15 Nova Gorica · Final
Jul 19
Gabriele Bosio
M15 Nova Gorica · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Dominko
M25 Maribor · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Piotr Galus
M25 Maribor · 1st Round
Aug 26
Luca Castagnola
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Bruno Fernandez
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bor Artnak
M25 Kursumlijska Banja · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Oscar Brown
M25 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round
Aug 12
Max Houkes
M25 Metzingen · 1st Round
Jul 22
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Skopje · Semifinals
Jul 4
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–78 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Popovic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 55% |
| Sets won | 45% | 54% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Popovic |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Popovic |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.