Luca Castagnola vs Sebastian SorgerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Sebastian Sorger have met 1 time since 2026; Sebastian Sorger leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 0 sets to Sorger's 2. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Sorger won at M25 Slovenj Gradec (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Sorger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Sebastian Sorger | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 15/27 | 86% | 44/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 13/35 | 26% | 7/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 25/62 | 18% | 14/78 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 11/25 | 67% | 26/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 15/33 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 92% | 47/51 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 15/27 | 86% | 44/51 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 0, Sorger 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Sorger
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 53% vs 🧱 The Wall across 591 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Sorger.
The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 21, 2026
M25 Slovenj Gradec
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Sorger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Sebastian Sorger | ||
| 1 or more | 74% | 17/23 | 84% | 21/25 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 7/23 | 24% | 6/25 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 8% | 2/25 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/25 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/25 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/25 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–10 | 18–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 1.59 |
| ROI % | -4.4% | -1.0% |
| Units P/L | -0.97u | -0.24u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 4 | 12 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → SLO | ITA → BUL → SLO |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sorger has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Castagnola's 38%).
| Opponent | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Jan Kupcic | L 67 64 46 | W 60 61 |
| Maximilian Figl | W 62 46 63 | W 62 64 |
| Pietro Romeo Scomparin | W 64 63 | W 63 60 |
| Lorenzo Angelini | L 36 16 | L 26 46 |
| Nazar Oliynykov | W 36 75 76 | W 62 60 |
| Arthur Nagel | L 64 57 46 | L 36 46 |
| Luca Potenza | L 67 46 | W 75 46 63 |
| Daniel Masur | L 06 67 | W 16 76 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefan Popovic
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maximilian Figl
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bruno Fernandez
M15 Trier · 1st Round
Aug 12
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Bolzano · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Luca Parenti
M25 Bolzano · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M15 Nova Gorica · Final
Jul 19
Gabriele Bosio
M15 Nova Gorica · Semifinals
Jul 18
Samuele Pieri
M25 Maribor · Semifinals
Aug 29
Giuseppe La Vela
M25 Maribor · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Miha Vetrih
M25 Maribor · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Jan Kupcic
M25 Maribor · 1st Round
Aug 26
Jonas Gundacker
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Final
Aug 23
Sebastian Dominko
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Semifinals
Aug 22
Luca Castagnola
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Karlo Kajin
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–78 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 65% |
| Sets won | 45% | 64% |
| Games won | 48% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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