Luca Castagnola vs Sebastian SorgerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Sebastian Sorger have met 1 time since 2026; Sebastian Sorger leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 0 sets to Sorger's 2. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Sorger won at M25 Slovenj Gradec (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Sorger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Sebastian Sorger | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 87% | 40/46 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 14/35 | 35% | 9/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 24/64 | 21% | 15/72 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 16/30 | 61% | 25/41 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 14/31 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 89% | 42/47 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 19/28 | 85% | 40/47 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 0, Sorger 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Sorger
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
🧱 The Wall vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 383 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 21, 2026
M25 Slovenj Gradec
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Sorger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Sebastian Sorger | ||
| 1 or more | 81% | 13/16 | 83% | 19/23 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 16–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.22 | 1.49 |
| ROI % | -20.8% | +4.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.32u | +0.96u |
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sorger has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Castagnola's 25%).
| Opponent | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Fares Zakaria | L 46 26 | W 76 63 |
| Valerio Aboian | L 36 64 26 | L 76 06 26 |
| Jan Kupcic | L 67 64 46 | W 60 61 |
| Maximilian Figl | W 62 46 63 | W 62 64 |
| Pietro Romeo Scomparin | W 64 63 | W 63 60 |
| Lorenzo Angelini | L 36 16 | L 26 46 |
| Arthur Nagel | L 64 57 46 | L 36 46 |
| Luca Potenza | L 67 46 | W 75 46 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Robert Strombachs
M15 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jan Werblinski
M15 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Sep 30
Fares Zakaria
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Jan Hrazdil
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Sep 23
Valerio Aboian
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
M15 Bologna · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Matic Hribar
M15 Bologna · 1st Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stepan Baum
M25 Pardubice · 1st Round
Sep 23
Martin Krumich
Tulln Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Valerio Aboian
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Petr Brunclik
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Samuele Pieri
M25 Maribor · Semifinals
Aug 29
Giuseppe La Vela
M25 Maribor · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Miha Vetrih
M25 Maribor · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Jan Kupcic
M25 Maribor · 1st Round
Aug 26
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–72 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 64% |
| Sets won | 47% | 64% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Sorger |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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