Luca Castagnola vs Melios EfstathiouPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Melios Efstathiou have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Castagnola leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 2 sets to Efstathiou's 1. Their most recent meeting: Luca Castagnola won at M15 Nova Gorica (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Efstathiou | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Melios Efstathiou | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 15/27 | 64% | 28/44 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 13/35 | 41% | 9/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 25/62 | 38% | 25/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 11/25 | 64% | 21/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 15/33 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 89% | 32/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 15/27 | 78% | 28/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 0, Efstathiou 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Efstathiou
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 53% vs 🧱 The Wall across 591 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Melios Efstathiou.
The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 17, 2026
M15 Nova Gorica
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Efstathiou | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Melios Efstathiou | ||
| 1 or more | 74% | 17/23 | 55% | 6/11 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 7/23 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–10 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 1.75 |
| ROI % | -4.4% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.97u | -1.23u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → SLO | FIN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Castagnola has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Efstathiou's 25%).
| Opponent | Castagnola | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Angelini | L 36 16 | L 36 57 |
| Nazar Oliynykov | W 36 75 76 | L 36 26 |
| Max Basing | L 36 26 | L 62 16 06 |
| Pietro Fellin | W 64 26 64 | W 76 67 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefan Popovic
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maximilian Figl
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bruno Fernandez
M15 Trier · 1st Round
Aug 12
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Bolzano · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Luca Parenti
M25 Bolzano · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M15 Nova Gorica · Final
Jul 19
Gabriele Bosio
M15 Nova Gorica · Semifinals
Jul 18
Oskari Paldanius
M15 Turku · 2nd Round
Aug 12
Kacper Szymkowiak
M15 Turku · 1st Round
Aug 11
Luca Castagnola
M15 Nova Gorica · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Alexander Gschiel
M15 Nova Gorica · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Lorenzo Ferri
M15 Nova Gorica · 1st Round
Jul 15
Marko Retelj
Futures 2026
Jul 1
Marko Retelj
M15 Store · 1st Round
Jul 1
Theo Papamalamis
M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · Final
Jun 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–67 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 66% |
| Sets won | 45% | 62% |
| Games won | 48% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Efstathiou |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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