Luca Castagnola vs Matyas CernyPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Matyas Cerny have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Castagnola leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 2 sets to Cerny's 0. Their most recent meeting: Luca Castagnola won at M15 Umag (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Cerny | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Matyas Cerny | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 15/27 | 70% | 14/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 13/35 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 25/62 | 32% | 12/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 11/25 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 15/33 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 15/27 | 64% | 14/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 1, Cerny 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Cerny
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 53% vs 🧱 The Wall across 591 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matyas Cerny.
The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 4, 2026
M15 Umag
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Cerny | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Matyas Cerny | ||
| 1 or more | 74% | 17/23 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 7/23 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Cerny |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–10 | 5–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -4.4% | -40.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.97u | -4.02u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Cerny |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → SLO | POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerny has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Castagnola's 67%).
| Opponent | Castagnola | Cerny |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Fellin | W 64 26 64 | W 64 62 |
| Nazar Oliynykov | W 36 75 76 | W 60 63 |
| Arthur Nagel | L 64 57 46 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefan Popovic
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maximilian Figl
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bruno Fernandez
M15 Trier · 1st Round
Aug 12
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Bolzano · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Luca Parenti
M25 Bolzano · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M15 Nova Gorica · Final
Jul 19
Gabriele Bosio
M15 Nova Gorica · Semifinals
Jul 18
Daniel Michalski
M25 Poznan · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Karol Filar
M25 Poznan · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Norbert Gombos
Liberec Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Yvo Panak
Bundesliga - men
Jul 12
Ignacio Carou
Trieste challenger
Jul 5
Luca Castagnola
M15 Umag · Semifinals
Jul 4
Pietro Fellin
M15 Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 3
Jou-George Gnjidic
M15 Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–62 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Cerny |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 51% |
| Sets won | 45% | 52% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Cerny |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Cerny |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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