Luca Castagnola vs Matteo FondriestPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Matteo Fondriest have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Castagnola leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 2 sets to Fondriest's 0. Their most recent meeting: Luca Castagnola won at M15 Nova Gorica (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Fondriest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Matteo Fondriest | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 15/27 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 13/35 | 22% | 4/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 25/62 | 28% | 7/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 11/25 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 15/33 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 20/27 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 15/27 | 67% | 4/6 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 1, Fondriest 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Fondriest
🏃 Pusher
Matchup analysis
The 🧱 The Wall archetype wins about 60% vs 🏃 Pusher across 22 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Luca Castagnola.
The Wall players often use elite returner and low unforced errors to pressure the pusher's extreme retrieval.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 16, 2026
M15 Nova Gorica
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Fondriest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Matteo Fondriest | ||
| 1 or more | 74% | 17/23 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 7/23 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Fondriest |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–10 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 3.54 |
| ROI % | -4.4% | -51.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.97u | -3.61u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Fondriest |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | GER → SLO | POL → SLO |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Castagnola and Fondriest posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Castagnola | Fondriest |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Masur | L 06 67 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefan Popovic
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maximilian Figl
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bruno Fernandez
M15 Trier · 1st Round
Aug 12
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Bolzano · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Luca Parenti
M25 Bolzano · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M15 Nova Gorica · Final
Jul 19
Gabriele Bosio
M15 Nova Gorica · Semifinals
Jul 18
Karlo Kajin
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 19
Luc Fomba
M15 Warsaw · 1st Round
Aug 11
Jan Hrazdil
M15 Bielsko Biala · 1st Round
Aug 5
Luca Castagnola
M15 Nova Gorica · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Jan Hrazdil
M15 Nova Gorica · 1st Round
Jul 15
Nikolai Barsukov
M25 Kassel · 1st Round
Jul 8
Dennis Andre Dutine
Futures 2026
Jul 7
Ben Patrick Ostheimer
Futures 2026
Jul 6
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–62 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Fondriest |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 28% |
| Sets won | 45% | 32% |
| Games won | 48% | 41% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Fondriest |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Fondriest |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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