Keisuke Saitoh vs Koki MatsudaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Keisuke Saitoh and Koki Matsuda have met 3 times since 2025; Keisuke Saitoh leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at M25 Takasaki 1 in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Saitoh leads 2–1. Across all meetings Saitoh has taken 5 sets to Matsuda's 3. Their most recent meeting: Keisuke Saitoh won at Jingshan Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Saitoh | Matsuda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Keisuke Saitoh | Koki Matsuda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 36/52 | 73% | 30/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 13% | 3/24 | 38% | 10/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 19/76 | 31% | 21/67 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 55% | 21/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 18/29 | 67% | 16/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 98% | 42/43 | 85% | 34/40 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 84% | 36/43 | 75% | 30/40 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Saitoh 1, Matsuda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Saitoh
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matsuda
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 58% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 900 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Koki Matsuda.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 28, 2026
Jingshan Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 2, 2025
Matsuyama
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 17, 2025
M25 Takasaki 1
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Saitoh | Matsuda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Keisuke Saitoh | Koki Matsuda | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 18/24 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 8/24 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 12% | 2/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Saitoh | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–7 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 2.06 |
| ROI % | +18.2% | -7.8% |
| Units P/L | +4.18u | -1.41u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Saitoh | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,420 mi · 2,285 km |
| Route | CHN | VIE → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Saitoh has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Matsuda's 43%).
| Opponent | Saitoh | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Hiroki Moriya | W 62 63 | L 64 46 06 |
| Yusuke Takahashi | W 46 63 62 | L 36 26 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | L 16 26 | L 36 46 |
| Ren Nakamura | W 64 60 | W 64 61 |
| Shinji Hazawa | W 63 61 | W 62 64 |
| Ko Suzuki | W 63 61 | W 75 63 |
| Noah Zamora | W 63 63 | L 76 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Wuning 3 Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 10
Akira Santillan
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Hiroki Moriya
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Dominik Palan
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Yusuke Takahashi
Wuning 3 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Zhicheng Wang
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Mattia Bellucci
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Koki Matsuda
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Evan Zhu
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Keisuke Saitoh
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Arthur Weber
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Philip Sekulic
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 11
Martin Borisiouk
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jake Delaney
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Fanming Meng
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–76 matches
| Metric | Saitoh | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 62% |
| Sets won | 63% | 59% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Saitoh | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Saitoh | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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