Keegan Smith vs Stefanos SakellaridisPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Jinan Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 4:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.68 or shorter, Stefanos Sakellaridis has won 34 of 47 (72%). The price implied 62%, so Stefanos Sakellaridis has beaten it by 10 points.
At 2.09 or longer, Keegan Smith has won 15 of 46 (33%). The price implied 38%, so Keegan Smith has fallen 5 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Keegan Smith and Stefanos Sakellaridis meet in the first round of the Jinan Challenger on October 12 on hard court. Smith, ranked 202nd, arrives after four matches in fourteen days. Sakellaridis sits at 135th and last played seven days ago.
Neither player has faced the other before. Smith has won 2 of his last 5 matches and 3 of his last 10. Sakellaridis has lost five consecutive matches and won just 2 of his last 10. Both have faced Andrej Nedic and Sho Shimabukuro in recent weeks; Smith defeated both while Sakellaridis lost to both.
Both men rely heavily on their serves. Smith's hard court record stands at 11-9, a 55% conversion rate across his recent sample. Sakellaridis shows 13-7 on hard at 65%. For Smith, consistent output from the baseline will matter after a stretch of short matches. Sakellaridis needs to halt a losing run and convert service points at the rate his record suggests he can sustain.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Smith | Sakellaridis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Keegan Smith | Stefanos Sakellaridis | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 43/62 | 65% | 32/49 |
| Wins a set when losing | 46% | 16/35 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 35/97 | 34% | 26/77 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 32/58 | 41% | 19/46 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 66% | 21/32 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 48% | 25/52 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 52/64 | 91% | 40/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 43/64 | 73% | 32/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
🤖 Servebot
Sakellaridis
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Keegan Smith and Stefanos Sakellaridis are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,464 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Smith and Sakellaridis have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Smith | Sakellaridis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Keegan Smith | Stefanos Sakellaridis | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Sakellaridis |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.65 | 2.12 |
| ROI % | -34.4% | -0.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.78u | -0.15u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Smith | Sakellaridis |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 2,418 mi · 3,891 km | 500 mi · 805 km |
| Route | USA | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sakellaridis has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Smith's 57%).
| Opponent | Smith | Sakellaridis |
|---|---|---|
| Andrej Nedic | W 61 76 | L 62 36 67 |
| Soon Woo Kwon | L 64 36 36 | W 62 63 |
| Martin Damm | L 16 57 | W 64 76 |
| Henri Squire | W 76 62 | W 76 46 64 |
| Rio Noguchi | W 63 46 62 | W 60 63 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | W 57 60 63 | L 57 46 |
| Manish Sureshkumar | L 46 62 26 | W 64 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hiroki Moriya
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Mitchell Krueger
Columbus Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Bryce Nakashima
Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Kaylan Bigun
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dylan Dietrich
San Diego 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Edward Winter
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Mitchell Krueger
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Alexis Galarneau
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Timofey Skatov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Yuta Shimizu
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Norbert Gombos
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, SVK-GRE 3-2 · Rubber 5
Sep 20
Alex Molcan
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, SVK-GRE 3-2 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Laslo Djere
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Duje Ajdukovic
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Mili Poljicak
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Andrej Nedic
Como Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 78–97 matches
| Metric | Smith | Sakellaridis |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 63% |
| Sets won | 61% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |