Keegan Smith vs Mario Gonzalez FernandezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Keegan Smith
#193 · 28 yrs · R
5w31 meeting · sets 2–0
🇪🇸Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
#602 · 24 yrs · R
Keegan Smith and Mario Gonzalez Fernandez have met 1 time since 2026; Keegan Smith leads 1–0. Across all meetings Smith has taken 2 sets to Fernandez's 0. Their most recent meeting: Keegan Smith won at Segovia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Smith | Gonzalez Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Keegan Smith | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 48/67 | 80% | 28/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 15/32 | 47% | 15/32 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 34/99 | 33% | 22/67 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 35/59 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 72% | 21/29 | 73% | 19/26 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 27/50 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 56/66 | 74% | 31/42 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 48/66 | 67% | 28/42 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Smith 1, Gonzalez Fernandez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
💥 Big Hitter
Fernandez
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 1,159 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Keegan Smith.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 22, 2026
Segovia Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Smith | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Keegan Smith | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–6 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 2.25 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | +31.9% | -17.6% |
| Units P/L | +4.78u | -2.81u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Smith | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | — | ESP → JAM |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Smith has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Fernandez's 25%).
| Opponent | Smith | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Aryan Shah | W 63 76 | L 16 76 36 |
| Dominik Palan | W 46 63 64 | L 46 46 |
| Bu Yunchaokete | L 46 57 | W 46 61 61 |
| Khololwam Montsi | W 63 76 | L 16 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luka Pavlovic
Segovia Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Paul Inchauspe
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Digvijay Pratap Singh
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Nerman Fatic
Bundesliga - men
Jul 12
Niels McDonald
Braunschweig Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Zsombor Piros
Brasov Challenger · Final
Jul 5
Guido Ivan Justo
Brasov Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 4
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Kingston 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Mitchell Krueger
Kingston 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 25
Aryan Shah
M25+H Tauste · Quarterfinals
Aug 7
Ander Tarrio Ponte
M25+H Tauste · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Keegan Smith
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Miguel Tobon
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
Dominik Palan
Pozoblanco challenger
Jul 13
S D Prajwal Dev
Pozoblanco challenger
Jul 12
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 67–99 matches
| Metric | Smith | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 52% |
| Sets won | 64% | 54% |
| Games won | 55% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Smith | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Smith | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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