Keegan Smith vs Luis Carlos AlvarezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Keegan Smith and Luis Carlos Alvarez have met 1 time since 2025; Luis Carlos Alvarez leads 1–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Alvarez leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Smith has taken 1 sets to Alvarez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Luis Carlos Alvarez won at M15 Fayetteville 1 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Smith | Carlos Alvarez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Keegan Smith | Luis Carlos Alvarez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 48/67 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 15/32 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 34/99 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 35/59 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 72% | 21/29 | 83% | 5/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 27/50 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 56/66 | 100% | 6/6 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 48/66 | 67% | 4/6 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Smith 0, Carlos Alvarez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Smith
💥 Big Hitter
Alvarez
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🧱 The Wall across 482 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Keegan Smith.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 21, 2025
M15 Fayetteville 1
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Smith | Alvarez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Keegan Smith | Luis Carlos Alvarez | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Smith | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–6 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.25 | 2.37 |
| ROI % | +31.9% | -20.5% |
| Units P/L | +4.78u | -0.82u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Smith and Alvarez posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Smith | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Raphael Perot | W 63 76 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luka Pavlovic
Segovia Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Paul Inchauspe
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Digvijay Pratap Singh
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Nerman Fatic
Bundesliga - men
Jul 12
Niels McDonald
Braunschweig Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Zsombor Piros
Brasov Challenger · Final
Jul 5
Guido Ivan Justo
Brasov Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 4
Juan Pablo Varillas
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Valerio Aboian
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Hernan Casanova
Quito Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Felipe Rivadeneira
Quito Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 29
Nav Dayal
Futures 2026
Jun 15
Zsombor Velcz
M25 Harlingen 1 · 1st Round
Oct 29
Asahi Harazaki
M25 Norman 1 · 1st Round
Oct 22
Keegan Smith
M15 Fayetteville 1 · Final
Sep 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–99 matches
| Metric | Smith | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 58% |
| Sets won | 64% | 55% |
| Games won | 55% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Smith | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ITF M15 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Smith | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.