Keaton Hance vs Naoya HondaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Keaton Hance and Naoya Honda have met 1 time since 2026; Keaton Hance leads 1–0. Across all meetings Hance has taken 2 sets to Honda's 0. Their most recent meeting: Keaton Hance won at M25 Edwardsville (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Hance | Honda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Keaton Hance | Naoya Honda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 83% | 15/18 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 14% | 2/14 | 40% | 10/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 16% | 5/32 | 30% | 16/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 73% | 11/15 | 44% | 11/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 7/16 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 1/3 | 68% | 15/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 18/18 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Hance 1, Honda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Hance
🪃 Counterpuncher
Honda
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,208 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 29, 2026
M25 Edwardsville
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Hance | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–2 | 12–8 |
| Avg odds | 3.07 | 1.71 |
| ROI % | -26.0% | -0.7% |
| Units P/L | -0.78u | -0.14u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Hance | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | — | USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Honda has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Hance's 50%).
| Opponent | Hance | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| William Jansen | L 26 26 | W 76 76 |
| Sulaiman Syed | W 62 75 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Johannus Monday
M25 Edwardsville · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Naoya Honda
M25 Edwardsville · 1st Round
Jul 29
William Jansen
M25 Champaign · 1st Round
Jul 22
Jack Kennedy
M25 Mataro · Quarterfinals
May 22
Sergi Perez Contri
M25 Mataro · 1st Round
May 20
Sergi Perez Contri
M25 Vic · 1st Round
May 13
Nick Hardt
M15 Orange Park · Semifinals
May 2
Matthew Segura
M15 Orange Park · Quarterfinals
May 1
Nikita Filin
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Kaylan Bigun
M25 Southaven · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Ryan Dickerson
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 4
Keaton Hance
M25 Edwardsville · 1st Round
Jul 29
Evan Bynoe
M25 Champaign · Final
Jul 26
William Jansen
M25 Champaign · Semifinals
Jul 25
Nikita Filin
M25 Champaign · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Vignesh Gogineni
M25 Champaign · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 32–53 matches
| Metric | Hance | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 53% |
| Sets won | 55% | 54% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Hance | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Hance | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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