Keaton Hance vs Matthew SeguraPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Keaton Hance and Matthew Segura have met 1 time since 2026; Keaton Hance leads 1–0. Across all meetings Hance has taken 2 sets to Segura's 0. Their most recent meeting: Keaton Hance won at M15 Orange Park (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Hance | Segura | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Keaton Hance | Matthew Segura | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 81% | 17/21 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Wins a set when losing | 21% | 3/14 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 20% | 7/35 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 75% | 12/16 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 10/18 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 1/3 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 21/21 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 44% | 4/9 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Hance 1, Segura 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Hance
🪃 Counterpuncher
Segura
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 55% vs 🧱 The Wall across 685 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Keaton Hance.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
May 1, 2026
M15 Orange Park
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Hance | Segura |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | - |
| Avg odds | 3.49 | - |
| ROI % | +22.9% | - |
| Units P/L | +1.60u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Hance | Segura |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 1,953 mi · 3,143 km | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Hance has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Segura's 25%).
| Opponent | Hance | Segura |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Francisco Gonzalez Noriega | W 60 61 | L 46 46 |
| Ignacio Monzon | W 64 64 | W 26 63 62 |
| Adam Lynch | W 62 64 | L 46 67 |
| Tommaso Compagnucci | L 26 06 | L 26 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Duncan Chan
Columbus Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Michael Antonius
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Nishesh Basavareddy
San Diego 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Andres Martin
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 23
Johannus Monday
M25 Edwardsville · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Naoya Honda
M25 Edwardsville · 1st Round
Jul 29
William Jansen
M25 Champaign · 1st Round
Jul 22
Jack Kennedy
M25 Mataro · Quarterfinals
May 22
Aleksandar Mitric
M25 Dallas · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jul 7
Ivan Mitric
Futures 2026
Jul 7
Arman Zamani
M25 Dallas · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 6
Joaquim de Almeida
M15 Vero Beach · 2nd Round
May 7
Joaquim Almeida
M15 Vero Beach FL · Round of 16
May 7
Vladislav Melnic
M15 Vero Beach · 1st Round
May 6
Lucas Nunez
M15 Vero Beach · 3rd Round Qualifying
May 5
Lefteri Apostolou
M15 Vero Beach · 1st Round Qualifying
May 4
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 19–35 matches
| Metric | Hance | Segura |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 47% |
| Sets won | 58% | 46% |
| Games won | 53% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Hance | Segura |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Hance | Segura |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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