Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nikita MashtakovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Plovdiv 3 Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- September 3 · 5:30 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
Priced around 2.96 or longer, Nikita Mashtakov has won 7 of 20 matches, 35% against a fair-price expectation of 24%.
Priced around 1.37 or shorter, Juan Manuel La Serna has won 8 of 11 matches, 73% against a fair-price expectation of 76%.
Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.
Juan Manuel La Serna takes on Nikita Mashtakov in the second round of the Plovdiv 3 Challenger on September 3, played on clay. La Serna, ranked 289, is coming off a first-round win and has played four times in the past two weeks. Mashtakov sits at 576 and arrives on a three-match winning streak after 11 matches in the same span.
The two have never met. Both players defeated Agustin Fernandez Badia in recent clay matches. La Serna has won three of his last five matches but only half his last ten. Mashtakov has won four of five and nine of ten, with a 16-4 clay record over his sample period compared to La Serna's 13-7.
La Serna plays an aggressive style built on taking the initiative in rallies. Mashtakov operates as a defensive baseline player who constructs points with consistency. La Serna has converted 65% of his clay matches; Mashtakov has won 80% of his. The question is whether La Serna can generate enough tempo to disrupt Mashtakov's rhythm, or whether Mashtakov's solidity will maintain control.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Manuel La Serna | Mashtakov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Manuel La Serna | Nikita Mashtakov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 30/46 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 20% | 3/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 26/72 | 30% | 13/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 9/21 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 14/20 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 9/17 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 41/47 | 92% | 24/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 30/47 | 69% | 18/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Serna
⚔️ The Gladiator
Mashtakov
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 54% vs 🧱 The Wall across 597 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Juan Manuel La Serna.
The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Serna and Mashtakov have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Serna | Mashtakov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Manuel La Serna | Nikita Mashtakov | ||
| 1 or more | 53% | 9/17 | 59% | 13/22 |
| 3 or more | 18% | 3/17 | 9% | 2/22 |
| 5 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 5% | 1/22 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/22 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/22 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Serna | Mashtakov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 18–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.09 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | -16.8% | +51.2% |
| Units P/L | -1.34u | +11.27u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Serna | Mashtakov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 5 |
| Events | 3 | 5 |
| Matches | 5 | 15 |
| Distance | 1,020 mi · 1,641 km | — |
| Route | SUI → GER → BUL | SVK → ITA → AUT → POL → BUL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Serna and Mashtakov posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Serna | Mashtakov |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Alejandro Hernandez | W 63 46 61 | W 26 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Vasilev
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Hynek Barton
Augsburg Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Benjamin Hassan
Augsburg Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 25
Tommaso Compagnucci
Sion Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Facundo Mena
Sion Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 18
Ignacio Monzon
Quito Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Juan Alejandro Hernandez
Quito Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 30
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Piracicaba Challenger · Semifinals
Jun 27
Stefan Popovic
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Jannik Opitz
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Valentin Basel
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Daniel Michalski
M25 Poznan · Semifinals
Aug 29
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Poznan · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Kirill Kivattsev
M25 Poznan · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Tom Zeuch
M25 Poznan · 1st Round
Aug 26
Thilo Behrmann
M15 Mistelbach · Final
Aug 23
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–72 matches
| Metric | Serna | Mashtakov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 65% |
| Sets won | 60% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |