Jay Friend vs Keisuke SaitohPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Wuning 3 Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- Semifinals
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 9 · 11:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Jay Friend and Keisuke Saitoh meet next at the Wuning 3 Challenger on October 9 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Friend | Saitoh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jay Friend | Keisuke Saitoh | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 23/33 | 69% | 36/52 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 7/17 | 13% | 3/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 17/50 | 25% | 19/75 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 12/27 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 27/30 | 98% | 42/43 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 23/30 | 84% | 36/43 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Friend
🏹 Frontrunner
Saitoh
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 63% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 376 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jay Friend.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Friend and Saitoh have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Friend | Saitoh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jay Friend | Keisuke Saitoh | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 78% | 18/23 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 8/11 | 35% | 8/23 |
| 5 or more | 55% | 6/11 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Friend | Saitoh |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–3 | 16–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.72 | 2.20 |
| ROI % | +17.3% | +23.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.55u | +5.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Friend | Saitoh |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 2 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | TUR | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Friend has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Saitoh's 50%).
| Opponent | Friend | Saitoh |
|---|---|---|
| Hiroki Moriya | W 62 60 | W 62 63 |
| Yanki Erel | W 36 64 63 | L 06 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Seggerman
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Yuta Kikuchi
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Max Basing
Istanbul Challenger · Final
Sep 13
Maks Kasnikowski
Istanbul Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Yanki Erel
Istanbul Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Samir Hamza Reguig
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Michele Ribecai
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Akira Santillan
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Hiroki Moriya
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Dominik Palan
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Yusuke Takahashi
Wuning 3 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Zhicheng Wang
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Mattia Bellucci
Jingshan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Koki Matsuda
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jerry Roddick
M25 Sapporo · Final
Sep 13
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–75 matches
| Metric | Friend | Saitoh |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 69% |
| Sets won | 62% | 63% |
| Games won | 54% | 55% |