Jan Choinski vs Taro DanielPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jan Choinski and Taro Daniel have met 2 times since 2024; Taro Daniel leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Hong Kong in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Daniel leads 2–0. Daniel has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Choinski has taken 1 sets to Daniel's 4. Their most recent meeting: Taro Daniel won at Quebec City Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Choinski | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jan Choinski | Taro Daniel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 23/39 | 73% | 29/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 26/65 | 31% | 19/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 72% | 21/29 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 17/32 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 29/32 | 83% | 35/42 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 23/32 | 69% | 29/42 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Choinski 0, Daniel 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Choinski
💥 Big Hitter
Daniel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 20, 2026
Quebec City Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 1, 2024
Hong Kong
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Choinski | Daniel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jan Choinski | Taro Daniel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Choinski | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 1.73 |
| ROI % | -28.6% | +5.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.57u | +0.82u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Choinski | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km |
| Route | — | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Daniel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Choinski's 57%).
| Opponent | Choinski | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 16 67 | L 67 46 |
| Stefanos Sakellaridis | L 36 46 | L 46 67 |
| Dusan Lajovic | W 75 64 | W 76 26 61 |
| Kyrian Jacquet | W 64 57 62 | W 64 36 63 |
| Federico Cina | L 16 57 | W 76 06 62 |
| Zsombor Piros | W 76 76 | W 63 63 |
| Andy Andrade | W 76 64 | W 36 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Botic van de Zandschulp
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Taro Daniel
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jamie Mackenzie
Bonn Challenger · Final
Aug 2
Federico Agustin Gomez
Bonn Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Alex Barrena
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Dane Sweeny
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Hayato Matsuoka
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Jake Delaney
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Matthew Dellavedova
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–68 matches
| Metric | Choinski | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 66% |
| Sets won | 55% | 62% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Choinski | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Choinski | Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
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