Jakub Paul vs Niels McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jakub Paul and Niels McDonald have met 1 time since 2026; Jakub Paul leads 1–0. Across all meetings Paul has taken 2 sets to McDonald's 1. Their most recent meeting: Jakub Paul won at Roanne Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paul | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jakub Paul | Niels McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 5/9 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 22% | 2/9 | 26% | 7/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 6/18 | 31% | 17/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 2/4 | 61% | 14/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 40% | 10/25 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 80% | 4/5 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 7/9 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 5/9 | 78% | 18/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paul 0, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paul
🪃 Counterpuncher
McDonald
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 878 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 11, 2026
Roanne Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paul | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–1 | 4–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.53 | 1.99 |
| ROI % | +86.7% | -50.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.60u | -5.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paul | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
McDonald has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Paul's 0%).
| Opponent | Paul | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Enrico Dalla Valle | L 36 57 | L 36 46 |
| Keegan Smith | L 36 57 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Niels McDonald
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Rudolf Molleker
Prague Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Svyatoslav Gulin
Prague Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 16
Enrico Dalla Valle
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 15
Michele Mecarelli
Emilia-Romagna Tennis Cup · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Valencia Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
May 12
Stefano Napolitano
Copa Faulconbridge · 1st Round Qualifying
May 11
Dusan Lajovic
Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 29
Jakub Paul
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Niels Visker
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Zaccharie Cado
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Enrico Dalla Valle
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Cezar Cretu
Augsburg Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 25
Marvin Moeller
Hamburg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Eduardo Ribeiro
Hamburg Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 12
Mika Petkovic
Hamburg Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 10
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 18–55 matches
| Metric | Paul | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 51% |
| Sets won | 48% | 50% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paul | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paul | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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