Jake Fellows vs Rodrigo LealPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- M25 Setubal
- Level
- ITF M25
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 23 · 2:05 AM ET
Book odds
Jake Fellows and Rodrigo Leal meet in the first round of the M25 Setubal on September 23, 2026, on a hard court. Fellows, ranked 1437, arrives with momentum after winning three straight matches and posting an 80% win rate over his last ten. Leal comes in ranked 1676 and has not played in the past two weeks, arriving off a three-match losing streak.
The two have not faced each other before. Fellows has won four of his last five matches, with a 70% record on hard courts overall. Leal's recent form has been inconsistent; he has won two of his last five but maintains a 60% rate over ten matches and holds a 50% record on hard courts in the sample.
Fellows tends to construct points through reactive shotmaking, capitalizing on opponents' errors and rhythm breaks. Leal relies on a steadier, more conservative approach with consistent baseline play. The match will test whether Fellows' current sharpness and aggressive counter-attack can break through Leal's patience, or whether Leal's steadiness can neutralize Fellows' timing after an extended layoff.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fellows | Leal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jake Fellows | Rodrigo Leal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 12/15 | 63% | 5/8 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 2/6 | 0% | 0/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 5/21 | 17% | 3/18 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 3/6 | 100% | 2/2 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 11% | 1/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 80% | 4/5 | 25% | 1/4 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 13/14 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 12/14 | 63% | 5/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fellows
🪃 Counterpuncher
Leal
🏃 Pusher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 70% vs 🏃 Pusher across 23 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jake Fellows.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the pusher's extreme retrieval.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Fellows and Leal have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fellows | Leal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jake Fellows | Rodrigo Leal | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 40% | 4/10 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fellows | Leal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–4 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 3.63 |
| ROI % | +27.6% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +3.04u | -1.22u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fellows | Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 10 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | EGY | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Fellows and Leal posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Fellows | Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Goncalo Martires | W 61 60 | W 64 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diego Molina
M25 Setubal · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Dino Molokova Ferreira
M25 Setubal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Aurel Ciocanu
M25 Setubal · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Giulio Perego
M25 Sintra · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Goncalo Martires
M25 Sintra · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Chirag Duhan
M15 Hurghada · Semifinals
Sep 5
Aditya Vishal Balsekar
M15 Hurghada · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Giulio Perego
M15 Hurghada · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Fausto Tabacco
M25 Sintra · 1st Round
Sep 8
Tiago Pereira
M25 Idanha-a-Nova · 1st Round
Aug 12
Pavlos Tsitsipas
M15 Castelo Branco · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Salvador Monteiro
M15 Castelo Branco · 1st Round
Jul 15
Joao Mendes
M15 Castelo Branco · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jul 13
Martim Bernardo
M15 Castelo Branco · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Carl Emil Overbeck
M25 Figueira da Foz · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Joao Portugal
M25 Figueira da Foz · 1st Round
Jun 30
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 18–21 matches
| Metric | Fellows | Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 44% |
| Sets won | 68% | 41% |
| Games won | 56% | 46% |