Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin vs Luka PavlovicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇷🇺Ilia Simakin

#152 · 22 yrs · R

15Title15-match win streakWon Phan Thiet 4 Challenger

0–0

First meeting

🇫🇷Luka Pavlovic

#205 · 26 yrs · R

Upcoming match

Tournament: Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
Level: ATP Masters 1000
Round: 1st Round Qualifying
Surface: Hard
Date & time: October 5 · 1:30 AM ET

Book odds

Luka Pavlovic2.832.76

Ilia Simakin1.411.43

Set spread

Pavlovic -1.54.60

Simakin +1.51.16

Game spread

Pavlovic +31.83

Simakin -31.85

PavlovicClay-court specialist (71%)SimakinHard-court specialist (92%)

Record at prices like this

Luka Pavlovic2.76implies 28%won 36%+8 pts

At 2.76 or longer, Luka Pavlovic has won 12 of 33 (36%). The price implied 28%, so Luka Pavlovic has beaten it by 8 points.

Ilia Simakin1.43implies 73%won 83%+10 pts

At 1.43 or shorter, Ilia Simakin has won 40 of 48 (83%). The price implied 73%, so Ilia Simakin has beaten it by 10 points.

Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.

Ilia Simakin and Luka Pavlovic meet next at the Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai on October 5 on hard.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Simakin	Pavlovic
Indicator	Ilia Simakin		Luka Pavlovic
Wins in straight sets	54%	28/52	56%	15/27
Wins a set when losing	42%	11/26	38%	10/26
Goes to a deciding set	45%	35/78	42%	22/53
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	51%	25/49	33%	7/21
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	61%	14/23	67%	20/30
Tiebreak sets won	49%	17/35	58%	15/26
Wins after taking set 1	88%	38/43	81%	22/27
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	65%	28/43	56%	15/27

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Simakin

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Pavlovic

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve

Matchup analysis

💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,872 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Simakin and Pavlovic have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Simakin	Pavlovic
Outcome	Ilia Simakin		Luka Pavlovic
1 or more	95%	20/21	100%	16/16
3 or more	91%	19/21	100%	16/16
5 or more	67%	14/21	69%	11/16
10 or more	24%	5/21	50%	8/16
15 or more	5%	1/21	19%	3/16
20 or more	0%	0/21	6%	1/16

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Simakin	Pavlovic
W-L	20–2	8–8
Avg odds	1.56	2.13
ROI %	+36.8%	-21.0%
Units P/L	+8.10u	-3.36u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Simakin	Pavlovic
Countries	2	2
Events	4	4
Matches	12	5
Distance	3,294 mi · 5,301 km	2,414 mi · 3,885 km
Route	CHN → VIE → CHN	VIE → CHN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Simakin has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Pavlovic's 63%).

Opponent	Simakin	Pavlovic
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	W 67 64 63	W 26 64 76
Hunter Heck	W 67 75 62	L 63 16 67
Yi Zhou	W 75 64	W 64 76
Tomas Barrios Vera	W 46 75 76	W 62 67 62
Frederico Ferreira Silva	L 46 26	W 26 63 64
Dimitar Kuzmanov	L 63 46 26	L 64 26 67
Max Houkes	W 62 63	L 64 26 26
Pol Martin Tiffon	W 26 63 75	W 61 64

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Simakin

WWWWWWWW

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · Final

6⁴7

Sep 20

Hunter Heck

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · Semifinals

6⁷7

Sep 19

Cruz Hewitt

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · Quarterfinals

Sep 18

Blake Ellis

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 2nd Round

Sep 17

Timofei Derepasko

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 15

Arthur Weber

Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Final

76⁵

Sep 13

Max Purcell

Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Semifinals

Sep 12

Philip Sekulic

Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals

Sep 11

Pavlovic

LWLLWLWL

Lloyd Harris

Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round

Oct 1

Akira Santillan

Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 29

Alexandre Muller

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying

76⁶

Sep 22

Hunter Heck

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 2nd Round

6⁶7

Sep 16

Ha Minh Duc Vu

Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 15

Jacob Fearnley

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying

76⁴

Aug 26

Juan Pablo Varillas

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying

6³7

Aug 24

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Cancun Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

6²7

6¹7

Aug 17

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–78 matches

Metric	Simakin	Pavlovic
Matches won	67%	50%
Sets won	60%	49%
Games won	54%	49%