Gianluca Carlini vs Matt PonchetPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Gianluca Carlini and Matt Ponchet have met 1 time since 2026; Gianluca Carlini leads 1–0. Across all meetings Carlini has taken 2 sets to Ponchet's 0. Their most recent meeting: Gianluca Carlini won at M25 Roda de Bara (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carlini | Ponchet | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Gianluca Carlini | Matt Ponchet | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 7/11 | 77% | 17/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 2/6 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 6/17 | 29% | 12/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 0% | 0/2 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 4/6 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 2/6 | 33% | 5/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 11/12 | 79% | 19/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 7/12 | 71% | 17/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carlini 1, Ponchet 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carlini
⚙️ Grinder
Ponchet
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matt Ponchet.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 7, 2026
M25 Roda de Bara
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carlini | Ponchet | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Gianluca Carlini | Matt Ponchet | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 2/2 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 1/2 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/2 | 100% | 4/4 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/2 | 25% | 1/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/2 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/2 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carlini | Ponchet |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–2 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 2.99 |
| ROI % | -62.7% | -65.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.88u | -4.61u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Carlini and Ponchet posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Carlini | Ponchet |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Sala Pages | W 63 62 | W 76 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Corey Craig
M15 Columbia · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Volodymyr Gurenko
M15 Columbia · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Noah Lopez Cherubino
M25+H Tauste · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alejo Prado
M25+H Tauste · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 3
Ian Luca Cervantes Tomas
M25+H Tauste · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 2
Yanki Erel
M25 Roda de Bara · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Matt Ponchet
M25 Roda de Bara · 1st Round
Jul 7
Rigele Te
M25 Roda de Bara · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jul 6
Mickael Kaouk
M25 Plaisir · 1st Round
Sep 8
Inaki Montes-De La Torre
Roehampton 2 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 23
Marcus Walters
Roehampton 1 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 16
Conor Gannon
M15 Dublin · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Ammar Elamin
M15 Dublin · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Melvin Kumar
M15 Dublin · 1st Round
Jul 29
Marcel Zielinski
Tampere Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 19
Gianluca Carlini
M25 Roda de Bara · 1st Round
Jul 7
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 17–41 matches
| Metric | Carlini | Ponchet |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 54% |
| Sets won | 60% | 54% |
| Games won | 55% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carlini | Ponchet |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carlini | Ponchet |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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