Gabriele Maria Noce vs John SperlePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- M15 Budapest
- Level
- ITF M15
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- September 11 · 4:05 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 1.18 or shorter, John Sperle has won 9 of 12 (75%). The price implied 85%, so John Sperle has fallen 10 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Gabriele Maria Noce meets John Sperle in the quarterfinals of the M15 Budapest on clay on September 11. Both players rank outside the top 800, with Noce at 801 and Sperle at 831. The two have never faced each other.
Sperle arrives with a seven-match winning streak, having won 4 of 5 and 8 of 10 overall. Noce has won 4 of his last 5 but has played five matches in 14 days. Both players own identical 13-7 records on clay in their recent sample, each converting 65% of those matches.
Noce operates as a counterpuncher, building points through patient defense and tactical positioning. Sperle relies on aggressive baseline play and sustained pressure to wear opponents down. The quarterfinal asks Noce to dictate pace and disrupt Sperle's rhythm; it asks Sperle to maintain the intensity that has carried his winning streak.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Maria Noce | Sperle | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Gabriele Maria Noce | John Sperle | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 24/41 | 71% | 25/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 21% | 5/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 26/69 | 25% | 15/59 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 18% | 3/17 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 81% | 13/16 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 12/22 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 32/38 | 94% | 31/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 24/38 | 76% | 25/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Noce
🪃 Counterpuncher
Sperle
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 2,394 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Noce and Sperle have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Noce | Sperle | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Gabriele Maria Noce | John Sperle | ||
| 1 or more | 82% | 22/27 | 71% | 10/14 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 8/27 | 14% | 2/14 |
| 5 or more | 4% | 1/27 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/27 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/27 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/27 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Noce | Sperle |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–8 | 11–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.40 | 1.51 |
| ROI % | -2.8% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.49u | +0.72u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Noce | Sperle |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 8 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | AUT → ITA | GER → BEL → HUN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sperle has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Noce's 33%).
| Opponent | Noce | Sperle |
|---|---|---|
| Mirko Lagasio | W 63 60 | W 60 60 |
| Jakub Nicod | L 16 06 | W |
| Sander Jong | L 46 46 | L 67 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Heorhii Shylov
M15 Budapest · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Pietro Marino
M15 Budapest · 1st Round
Sep 9
Manuel Mazza
M15 Bologna · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Alessandro Battiston
M15 Bologna · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Mirko Lagasio
M15 Bologna · 1st Round
Sep 2
Thilo Behrmann
M15 Mistelbach · Semifinals
Aug 22
David Wallechner
M15 Mistelbach · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nicolo Toffanin
M15 Mistelbach · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Adam Gabor Szoke
M15 Budapest · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Karol Filar
M15 Budapest · 1st Round
Sep 9
Ignacio Monzon
M15 Pecs · Final
Aug 30
Stepan Baum
M15 Pecs · Semifinals
Aug 29
Lorenzo Bocchi
M15 Pecs · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Kolos Kincses
M15 Pecs · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Tomas Lanik
M15 Pecs · 1st Round
Aug 26
Rafael Giotis
M15 Lambermont · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–69 matches
| Metric | Noce | Sperle |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 59% |
| Sets won | 55% | 56% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |