Francisco Rocha vs Mert AlkayaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Francisco Rocha and Mert Alkaya have met 1 time since 2026; Mert Alkaya leads 1–0. Across all meetings Rocha has taken 1 sets to Alkaya's 2. Their most recent meeting: Mert Alkaya won at M25 Porto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rocha | Alkaya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Francisco Rocha | Mert Alkaya | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 12/21 | 78% | 47/60 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 17/48 | 31% | 27/88 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 6/11 | 68% | 41/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 14/33 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 90% | 52/58 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 12/21 | 81% | 47/58 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rocha 0, Alkaya 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rocha
🧱 The Wall
Alkaya
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 54% vs 🧱 The Wall across 753 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mert Alkaya.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jun 27, 2026
M25 Porto
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rocha | Alkaya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Francisco Rocha | Mert Alkaya | ||
| 1 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 72% | 13/18 |
| 5 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 50% | 9/18 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 11% | 2/18 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rocha | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–5 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.97 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | -23.2% | -31.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.32u | -5.61u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rocha | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 5 |
| Distance | — | 2,119 mi · 3,410 km |
| Route | POR | TUR → KAZ |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alkaya has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rocha's 30%).
| Opponent | Rocha | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Tiago Cacao | L 67 36 | W 76 64 |
| Kenta Miyoshi | W 76 61 | L 36 26 |
| Fabrizio Andaloro | L 67 46 | W 62 46 61 |
| Georgii Kravchenko | L 16 46 | W 63 61 |
| Tiago Torres | L 64 36 26 | W 64 64 |
| Patrick Schoen | L 26 67 | W 64 62 |
| Massimo Giunta | W 63 36 61 | W 76 63 |
| Olle Wallin | L 46 26 | L 26 63 16 |
| Leo Borg | W 63 36 63 | W 64 62 |
| Jay Clarke | L 16 46 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tiago Cacao
M25 Idanha-a-Nova · 1st Round
Aug 12
Tiago Cacao
M15 Castelo Branco · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Lucas Marionneau
M15 Castelo Branco · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Matisse Farzam
M15 Castelo Branco · 1st Round
Jul 15
Riccardo Bellotti
Bundesliga - men
Jul 12
Emile Hudd
M25 Figueira da Foz · 1st Round
Jun 30
Mert Alkaya
M25 Porto · Semifinals
Jun 27
Goncalo Marques
M25 Porto · 2nd Round
Jun 25
Khumoun Sultanov
Astana Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Beibit Zhukayev
Astana Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 12
Sidharth Rawat
Astana Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 11
Kenta Miyoshi
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Saba Purtseladze
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Colin Sinclair
Samsun Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Luka Pavlovic
Segovia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Akira Santillan
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–88 matches
| Metric | Rocha | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 68% |
| Sets won | 44% | 66% |
| Games won | 48% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rocha | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rocha | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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