Erika Sema vs Sara SaitoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇯🇵Erika Sema
#553 · 37 yrs · Right-Handed
6w3 meetings · sets 3–4
🇯🇵Sara Saito
#271 · 19 yrs · Right-Handed
4wErika Sema and Sara Saito have met 3 times since 2025; Sara Saito leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at W35 Hamamatsu 1 in 2025 on carpet. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sema has taken 3 sets to Saito's 4. Their most recent meeting: Sara Saito won at W75 Lexington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sema | Saito | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Erika Sema | Sara Saito | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 91% | 21/23 | 71% | 22/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 38% | 10/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 12/49 | 33% | 19/57 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 65% | 13/20 | 42% | 15/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 13/23 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 4/8 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 22/27 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 73% | 22/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sema 1, Saito 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sema
🪃 Counterpuncher
Saito
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 61% vs 🧱 The Wall across 2,566 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Erika Sema.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 30, 2026
W75 Lexington
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 24, 2026
W35 Taipei
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 5, 2025
W35 Hamamatsu 1
? Carpet · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sema | Saito | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Erika Sema | Sara Saito | ||
| 1 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–5 | 5–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.51 | 2.13 |
| ROI % | -61.3% | -24.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.29u | -2.92u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Saito has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Sema's 25%).
| Opponent | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Patcharin Cheapchadej | L 46 36 | L 26 36 |
| Cadence Brace | L 61 57 36 | W 60 62 |
| Laquisa Khan | W 62 76 | W 62 62 |
| Natsumi Kawaguchi | L 16 57 | L 62 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Vaishnavi Adkar
W50 Guiyang · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Jia Jing Lu
W75 Tianjin · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Eunhye Lee
W35 Southaven · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Maria Fernanda Navarro Oliva
W35 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 4
Sara Saito
W75 Lexington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mckenna Schaefbauer
W75 Lexington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Teah Chavez
W35 Saskatoon · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Kelly Keller
W35 Saskatoon · 1st Round
Jul 23
Unknown Player
Jingshan Tennis Open - Jingshan · 1st Round
Sep 28
Alevtina Ibragimova
Korea Open - Seoul · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 20
En Shuo Liang
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 19
Xinxin Yao
W50 Guiyang · 1st Round
Sep 9
Viktoria Morvayova
W75 Tianjin · 1st Round
Sep 2
Reese Brantmeier
W100 Landisville · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 4
Kylie Collins
W75 Lexington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Erika Sema
W75 Lexington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–57 matches
| Metric | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 54% |
| Sets won | 51% | 54% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| ITF W75 | 0 | 1 |
| ITF W35 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Carpet | 0 | 1 |
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