Erika Sema vs Sara SaitoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇯🇵Erika Sema
#504 · 37 yrs · Right-Handed
4w3 meetings · sets 3–4
🇯🇵Sara Saito
#243 · 19 yrs · Right-Handed
4wErika Sema and Sara Saito have met 3 times since 2025; Sara Saito leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at W35 Hamamatsu 1 in 2025 on carpet. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sema has taken 3 sets to Saito's 4. Their most recent meeting: Sara Saito won at W75 Lexington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sema | Saito | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Erika Sema | Sara Saito | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 92% | 23/25 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 8/23 | 33% | 8/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 21% | 10/48 | 32% | 18/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 14/20 | 44% | 16/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 12/22 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 4/6 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 24/28 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 23/28 | 76% | 22/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sema 1, Saito 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sema
🪃 Counterpuncher
Saito
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 7,723 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 30, 2026
W75 Lexington
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 24, 2026
W35 Taipei
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 5, 2025
W35 Hamamatsu 1
? Carpet · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sema | Saito | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Erika Sema | Sara Saito | ||
| 1 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 53% | 8/15 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–8 | 9–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.88 | 1.71 |
| ROI % | -31.2% | -1.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.74u | -0.24u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Saito has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Sema's 14%).
| Opponent | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Cadence Brace | L 61 57 36 | W 60 62 |
| Patcharin Cheapchadej | L 46 36 | L 36 26 |
| Katie Swan | L 36 16 | L 46 46 |
| Nao Hibino | L 06 46 | L 46 16 |
| Laquisa Khan | W 62 76 | W 62 62 |
| Lizette Cabrera | L 64 26 57 | W 67 75 64 |
| Natsumi Kawaguchi | L 16 57 | L 62 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Eunhye Lee
W35 Southaven · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Maria Fernanda Navarro Oliva
W35 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 4
Sara Saito
W75 Lexington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mckenna Schaefbauer
W75 Lexington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Teah Chavez
W35 Saskatoon · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Kelly Keller
W35 Saskatoon · 1st Round
Jul 23
Cadence Brace
W75 Granby · 2nd Round
Jul 17
Avery Alexander
W75 Granby · 1st Round
Jul 15
Kylie Collins
W75 Lexington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Erika Sema
W75 Lexington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Luciana Perry
W75 Lexington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
W100 Evansville · 1st Round
Jul 22
Kayla Cross
W75 Granby · Final
Jul 19
Cadence Brace
W75 Granby · Quarterfinals
Jul 18
Sakura Hosogi
W75 Granby · Semifinals
Jul 18
Kayo Nishimura
W75 Granby · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–56 matches
| Metric | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 57% |
| Sets won | 55% | 55% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| ITF W75 | 0 | 1 |
| ITF W35 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sema | Saito |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Carpet | 0 | 1 |
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