Elias Ymer vs Pavel KotovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Elias Ymer and Pavel Kotov have met 3 times since 2021; Pavel Kotov leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Moscow in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Kotov has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Ymer has taken 3 sets to Kotov's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pavel Kotov won at Shanghai Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ymer | Kotov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elias Ymer | Pavel Kotov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 15/28 | 56% | 18/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 23/54 | 43% | 19/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 9/21 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 16/30 | 77% | 10/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 16/28 | 76% | 19/25 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 24/28 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 54% | 15/28 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ymer 1, Kotov 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ymer
💥 Big Hitter
Kotov
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 8, 2026
Shanghai Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
May 13, 2022
Bordeaux Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 16, 2021
Moscow
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ymer | Kotov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elias Ymer | Pavel Kotov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 5 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 69% | 11/16 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ymer | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–9 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.40 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | -55.8% | +24.1% |
| Units P/L | -7.25u | +3.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ymer | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 11 |
| Distance | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Kotov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Ymer's 25%).
| Opponent | Ymer | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Damm | L 36 57 | W 76 67 63 |
| Alexis Galarneau | L 57 67 | W 36 61 61 |
| Luca Castelnuovo | W 76 64 | W 67 75 75 |
| Marat Sharipov | L 67 36 | L 06 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mattia Bellucci
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Federico Cina
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Terence Atmane
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexis Galarneau
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Luca Castelnuovo
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Semen Pankin
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Pavel Kotov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Arthur Fils
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Tallon Griekspoor
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Aleksandar Vukic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Martin Damm
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Shintaro Mochizuki
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Luca Castelnuovo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Bernard Tomic
Guangzhou Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–55 matches
| Metric | Ymer | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 73% |
| Sets won | 50% | 64% |
| Games won | 49% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ymer | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ymer | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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