Edward Winter vs Keegan SmithPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Edward Winter and Keegan Smith have met 2 times since 2023; Keegan Smith leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Fairfield in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Smith leads 2–0. Smith has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Winter has taken 1 sets to Smith's 4. Their most recent meeting: Keegan Smith won at San Diego 2 Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Winter | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Edward Winter | Keegan Smith | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 12/21 | 69% | 42/61 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 8/25 | 46% | 16/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 17/46 | 36% | 35/96 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 11/20 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 6/14 | 48% | 25/52 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 81% | 51/63 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 12/19 | 67% | 42/63 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Winter 0, Smith 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Winter
🪃 Counterpuncher
Smith
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Keegan Smith.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 21, 2026
San Diego 2 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 9, 2023
Fairfield
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Winter | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Edward Winter | Keegan Smith | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 4/10 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Winter | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–8 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.25 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | -17.9% | -34.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.69u | -3.78u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Winter | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 2,418 mi · 3,891 km | 2,418 mi · 3,891 km |
| Route | USA | USA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Winter has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Smith's 43%).
| Opponent | Winter | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Hiroki Moriya | W 46 62 63 | L 63 67 36 |
| Alexis Galarneau | L 75 57 57 | L 67 36 |
| Soon Woo Kwon | L 57 26 | L 64 36 36 |
| Gavin Young | W 62 62 | W 64 64 |
| Joshua Sheehy | W 46 63 60 | W 63 63 |
| Andrew Fenty | W | L 64 67 67 |
| Sho Shimabukuro | L 46 16 | W 57 60 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mees Rottgering
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 28
Keegan Smith
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Tristan Boyer
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Andy Andrade
Kingston 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 24
Gonzalo Bueno
Kingston 1 Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 19
John Chin
Kingston 1 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 18
Aidan Kim
Kingston 1 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Steven Christie
Kingston 1 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 16
Hiroki Moriya
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Mitchell Krueger
Columbus Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Bryce Nakashima
Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Kaylan Bigun
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dylan Dietrich
San Diego 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Edward Winter
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Mitchell Krueger
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Alexis Galarneau
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–96 matches
| Metric | Winter | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 64% |
| Sets won | 46% | 61% |
| Games won | 50% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Winter | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Winter | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
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