Diogo Morais vs Lucas PoullainPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- M25 Setubal
- Level
- ITF M25
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 23 · 2:05 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 1.18 or shorter, Lucas Poullain has won 18 of 20 (90%). The price implied 86%, so Lucas Poullain has beaten it by 4 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Diogo Morais and Lucas Poullain meet next at the M25 Setubal on September 23 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Morais | Poullain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Diogo Morais | Lucas Poullain | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 5/10 | 73% | 30/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 5/10 | 26% | 7/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 50% | 10/20 | 26% | 18/68 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 1/3 | 59% | 27/46 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 3/9 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 7/9 | 89% | 32/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 5/9 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Morais
🧱 The Wall
Poullain
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
🧱 The Wall vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 417 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Morais and Poullain have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Morais | Poullain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Diogo Morais | Lucas Poullain | ||
| 1 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 12% | 2/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Morais | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–8 | 11–6 |
| Avg odds | 3.94 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -58.0% | +22.4% |
| Units P/L | -6.96u | +3.81u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Morais | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | — | 485 mi · 781 km |
| Route | MAR | FRA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Poullain has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Morais's 50%).
| Opponent | Morais | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Nagel | L 36 36 | W 75 62 |
| Rafael Izquierdo Luque | W 63 67 105 | W |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lemuel Cassidy
M25 Setubal · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Pierre Antoine Tailleu
M25 Setubal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Filipe Sustelo
M25 Setubal · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Robin Bertrand
M25 Sintra · 1st Round
Sep 16
Joel Lamotte
M25 Sintra · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Tomas Curras Abasolo
M25 Sintra · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
David Toma
M25 Sintra · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Max Houkes
M25 Rabat · 1st Round
Sep 9
Clement Chidekh
Rennes Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
David Jorda Sanchis
Rennes Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Moez Echargui
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Oliver Tarvet
Roehampton 1 Challenger · Final
Aug 22
Lui Maxted
Roehampton 1 Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 21
Michael Geerts
Roehampton 1 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Viktor Durasovic
Roehampton 1 Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 19
Max Basing
Roehampton 1 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 17
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 20–68 matches
| Metric | Morais | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 60% |
| Sets won | 50% | 58% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |