Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Dayana Yastremska
#112 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
33 meetings · sets 0–6
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Dayana Yastremska and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Thailand Open - Hua Hin in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Maria leads 2–0. Maria has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Yastremska has taken 0 sets to Maria's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Yastremska | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dayana Yastremska | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 12/17 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 9/22 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 14/39 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 7/19 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 11/19 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 12/17 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 16/21 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 12/21 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Yastremska 0, Maria 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Yastremska
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Dayana Yastremska and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 13, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 17, 2026
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 2, 2023
Thailand Open - Hua Hin
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Yastremska | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Dayana Yastremska | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.79 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -51.6% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -4.13u | +2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,304 mi · 2,098 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | POL → AUT | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Yastremska's 17%).
| Opponent | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Janice Tjen | L 62 36 67 | W 63 62 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 16 | L 26 57 |
| Talia Gibson | W 76 76 | W 60 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | L 64 57 67 | W 62 61 |
| Jasmine Paolini | L 57 36 | W 64 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 76 36 | L 76 57 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Janice Tjen
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Tatjana Maria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Aoi Ito
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Alicia Dudeney
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham · 1st Round
Jun 16
Ajla Tomljanovic
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Sara Bejlek
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 9
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–60 matches
| Metric | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 50% |
| Sets won | 47% | 52% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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