Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Dayana Yastremska
#103 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleDayana Yastremska and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2023; Tatjana Maria leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Thailand Open - Hua Hin in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Maria leads 2–0. Maria has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Yastremska has taken 0 sets to Maria's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Yastremska | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dayana Yastremska | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 14/19 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 15/42 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 7/21 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 13/20 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 12/17 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 18/23 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 14/23 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Yastremska 0, Maria 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Yastremska
💥 Big Hitter
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Dayana Yastremska and Tatjana Maria are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 13, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 17, 2026
Lexus Nottingham Open - Nottingham
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 2, 2023
Thailand Open - Hua Hin
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Yastremska | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Dayana Yastremska | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -14.7% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | -0.88u | -0.87u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Maria has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Yastremska's 22%).
| Opponent | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Caty Mcnally | W 63 64 | L 64 67 16 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | L 46 46 | W 46 61 62 |
| Lucrezia Stefanini | L 36 64 16 | W 61 60 |
| Janice Tjen | L 62 36 67 | W 63 62 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 16 | L 26 57 |
| Talia Gibson | W 76 76 | W 60 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | L 64 57 67 | W 62 61 |
| Jasmine Paolini | L 57 36 | W 64 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 76 36 | L 76 57 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sinja Kraus
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maja Chwalinska
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Caty Mcnally
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Janice Tjen
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Tatjana Maria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Aoi Ito
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–60 matches
| Metric | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 53% |
| Sets won | 48% | 55% |
| Games won | 48% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Yastremska | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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