Darya Astakhova vs Maddison InglisPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- China Open - Beijing
- Level
- WTA 1000
- Round
- 3rd Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 29 · 2:50 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.80 or shorter, Maddison Inglis has won 5 of 14 (36%). The price implied 57%, so Maddison Inglis has fallen 21 points short of it.
At 2.02 or longer, Darya Astakhova has won 15 of 30 (50%). The price implied 40%, so Darya Astakhova has beaten it by 10 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Maddison Inglis and Darya Astakhova meet in the 3rd Round Qualifying at the China Open in Beijing on September 29 on hard court. Inglis, ranked 140th, comes off a win; Astakhova sits at 187th and has played five matches in two weeks, including a victory yesterday.
The two have no head-to-head record. Inglis has won three of her last five matches overall. Astakhova has taken four of five and runs a 70% hard court record in recent play, compared to Inglis at 55%. Both beat Xinxin Yao in recent qualifying action, though Astakhova defeated Miho Kuramochi while Inglis fell to her.
Inglis relies on her serve as her primary weapon and will need to dictate from the baseline and force weak returns. Astakhova thrives in extended rallies and uses court position and movement to control points; she has logged heavy minutes this week and must manage the pace. The hard court suits both players, but Astakhova's grinding style and recent match sharpness test whether Inglis can keep points short.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Astakhova | Inglis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Darya Astakhova | Maddison Inglis | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 28/48 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 28% | 5/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 29/71 | 35% | 13/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 21/45 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 15/23 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 38/43 | 100% | 16/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 28/43 | 69% | 11/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Astakhova
⚔️ The Gladiator
Inglis
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 1,045 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Maddison Inglis.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Astakhova and Inglis have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Astakhova | Inglis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Darya Astakhova | Maddison Inglis | ||
| 1 or more | 44% | 11/25 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 3 or more | 4% | 1/25 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 4% | 1/25 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/25 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/25 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/25 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Astakhova | Inglis |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–8 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.12 | 2.15 |
| ROI % | +14.8% | +57.0% |
| Units P/L | +3.40u | +3.99u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Astakhova | Inglis |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 4 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 1 |
| Matches | 12 | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ITA → CZE → POR → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Astakhova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Inglis's 50%).
| Opponent | Astakhova | Inglis |
|---|---|---|
| Xinxin Yao | W 64 75 | W 61 75 |
| Miho Kuramochi | W 64 63 | L 36 76 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Desirae Krawczyk
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Alina Korneeva
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Magda Linette
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 21
Alexandra Shubladze
Korea Open - Seoul · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Haruka Kaji
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 19
Daria Khomutsianskaya
W50 Guiyang · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Viktoria Morvayova
W50 Guiyang · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Jiayi Wang
W50 Guiyang · 1st Round
Sep 9
Xinxin Yao
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Storm Hunter
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Taylah Preston
Odlum Brown VanOpen - Vancouver · Final
Aug 1
Mai Hontama
Odlum Brown VanOpen - Vancouver · Semifinals
Jul 31
Moyuka Uchijima
Odlum Brown VanOpen - Vancouver · Quarterfinals
Jul 30
Sofia Costoulas
Odlum Brown VanOpen - Vancouver · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Greet Minnen
Odlum Brown VanOpen - Vancouver · 1st Round
Jul 29
Lucia Bronzetti
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 23
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–72 matches
| Metric | Astakhova | Inglis |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 51% |
| Sets won | 61% | 49% |
| Games won | 55% | 49% |