Darya Astakhova vs Lea NilssonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Darya Astakhova
#174 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
31 meeting · sets 2–0
🇸🇪Lea Nilsson
#356 · 17 yrs · Left-Handed
Darya Astakhova and Lea Nilsson have met 1 time since 2026; Darya Astakhova leads 1–0. Across all meetings Astakhova has taken 2 sets to Nilsson's 0. Their most recent meeting: Darya Astakhova won at W75 Kursumlijska Banja (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Astakhova | Nilsson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Darya Astakhova | Lea Nilsson | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 28/48 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 29/71 | 30% | 14/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 21/44 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 15/24 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 38/43 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 28/43 | 72% | 23/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Astakhova 1, Nilsson 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Astakhova
🪃 Counterpuncher
Nilsson
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚔️ The Gladiator is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 7,862 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 19, 2026
W75 Kursumlijska Banja
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Astakhova | Nilsson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Darya Astakhova | Lea Nilsson | ||
| 1 or more | 46% | 11/24 | 64% | 7/11 |
| 3 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 5 or more | 4% | 1/24 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Astakhova | Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–7 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | +19.4% | -4.8% |
| Units P/L | +4.08u | -0.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Astakhova | Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 4 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | POR → ROU | KAZ → ECU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Astakhova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Nilsson's 67%).
| Opponent | Astakhova | Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| Haruka Kaji | W 62 67 62 | L 67 16 |
| Patcharin Cheapchadej | W 63 63 | W 63 62 |
| Margaux Rouvroy | W 64 64 | W 63 26 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Renata Zarazua
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 2nd Round
Oct 7
Sofia Costoulas
Suzhou WTA 125 - Suzhou · 1st Round
Oct 5
Maddison Inglis
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Desirae Krawczyk
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Alina Korneeva
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Magda Linette
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 21
Alexandra Shubladze
Korea Open - Seoul · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Haruka Kaji
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 19
Susan Bandecchi
W75 Quinta do Lago · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Petra Sedlackova
W75 Quinta do Lago · 1st Round
Sep 29
Elizabeth Jurna
W75 Quinta do Lago · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Lea Boskovic
W50 Yecla · 1st Round
Sep 22
Selena Janicijevic
W50 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round
Aug 26
Darya Astakhova
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round
Aug 19
Maria Golovina
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Jana Bojovic
W75 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 16
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–72 matches
| Metric | Astakhova | Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 61% |
| Sets won | 61% | 61% |
| Games won | 55% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Astakhova | Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| ITF W75 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Astakhova | Nilsson |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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