Daniel Bagnolini vs Petr NesterovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniel Bagnolini and Petr Nesterov have met 2 times since 2026; Petr Nesterov leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Internazionali Di Tennis - Citta'Di Vicenza in 2026 on clay. On clay courts Nesterov leads 2–0. Nesterov has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Bagnolini has taken 2 sets to Nesterov's 4. Their most recent meeting: Petr Nesterov won at Vicenza Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bagnolini | Nesterov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniel Bagnolini | Petr Nesterov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 5/7 | 60% | 41/68 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 5/16 | 44% | 12/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 7/23 | 41% | 39/95 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 2/4 | 44% | 28/63 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 63% | 15/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 100% | 3/3 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 7/10 | 93% | 54/58 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 5/10 | 71% | 41/58 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bagnolini 0, Nesterov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bagnolini
🛡️ The Spoiler
Nesterov
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
🛡️ The Spoiler vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 115 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 24, 2026
Vicenza Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
May 2, 2026
Internazionali Di Tennis - Citta'Di Vicenza
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bagnolini | Nesterov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniel Bagnolini | Petr Nesterov | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 86% | 18/21 |
| 3 or more | 25% | 1/4 | 62% | 13/21 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 1/4 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bagnolini | Nesterov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–3 | 15–8 |
| Avg odds | 4.28 | 1.69 |
| ROI % | -71.8% | +2.6% |
| Units P/L | -2.87u | +0.59u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bagnolini | Nesterov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 1,712 mi · 2,756 km |
| Route | — | BUL → POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nesterov has a higher win rate against shared opponents (88% vs Bagnolini's 13%).
| Opponent | Bagnolini | Nesterov |
|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Filippi | L | W 62 75 |
| Sebastian Sorger | W 63 57 62 | W 64 76 |
| Keisuke Saitoh | L 26 26 | L 46 64 67 |
| Alaa Trifi | L 64 57 57 | W 60 64 |
| Tommaso Compagnucci | L 46 06 | W 63 76 |
| Kasra Rahmani | L 60 36 16 | W 63 26 62 |
| Christian Djonov | L 26 26 | W 64 62 |
| Christian Djonov | L 26 26 | W 64 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tommaso Filippi
M15 Bologna · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Maxime Chazal
M15 Cap d'Agde · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Elias Julian Werner
M15 Cap d'Agde · 1st Round
Aug 25
Gregorio Biondolillo
M25 Lesa · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 18
Leonardo Condo
M25 Lesa · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Keisuke Saitoh
M15 Bali · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alaa Trifi
M15 Monastir · 1st Round
Jul 15
Timofey Stepanov
M15 Monastir · 1st Round
Jul 8
Christian Langmo
Olbia Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Villena Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Carles Hernandez
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Hynek Barton
Villena Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Charles Chen
Villena Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Goncalo Marques
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Marko Topo
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Giorgio Tabacco
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 24–95 matches
| Metric | Bagnolini | Nesterov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 29% | 72% |
| Sets won | 35% | 65% |
| Games won | 42% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bagnolini | Nesterov |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bagnolini | Nesterov |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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